Trump’s customs policy: This industry is particularly suffering

The large US airlines could be one of President Donald Trump’s major losers. According to a study by the credit insurer Allianz Trade, they have the lowest sales forecasts compared to competitors and, despite the very sunken kerosene prices, they have particularly low profit margins.

The forecast of growth in sales of North American airlines is 1.0 percent compared to the previous year for the year 2025, reports industry expert Maria Latorre. That is the weakest sales growth among global competitors. An important reason is the lower domestic demand: since Trump’s customs announcements, the average occupancy rate of internal American flights has decreased by 6 points to 78 percent.

The Allianz Trade specialist also expects burglaries for the US tourist industry. More than half (52 percent) of the 72 million international tourists came from Canada and Mexico, whose population showed significant reluctance when traveling to the USA because of the tariffs. The number of passengers in the first three months of the year also fell transatlantic. German and Spanish tourists in particular had avoided the United States in March.

For the European Airlines, Allianz Trade expects sales growth of 10 percent despite the turbulence in the current year. The companies benefited primarily from strongly sunken fuel prices at a persistently high price level for the tickets.

Problems were evident in the availability of new jets. The order inventory worldwide has never existed 17,000 aircraft, while the manufacturers still have not brought their production back to the level of before the Corona crisis.

The current trade war will tighten the disorders in the global supply chains of the manufacturers and make aircraft more expensive, explains Latorre. “In fact, planes have already become 16 percent more expensive in the past five years. In view of the latest developments, prices are likely to increase by a further 20 percent by 2030.”