He International Monetary Fund (IMF) Wait for “The rapid escalation of commercial tensions and extremely high levels of political uncertainty“Have “Significant impact on global economic activity.”
Consequently, It reduced its forecast to increase the global gross product for the current year, to 2.8%. Instead, For Argentina, the multilateral agency maintains a high growth rate that would reach 5.5% in 2025. This is indicated by your last update of the World Economic Perspectives Report (Weo) released this Tuesday in Washington.
In addition to providing an important recovery for the Argentine economy for this year, the IMF It also projects a high growth rate by 2026, 4.5% Despite the deterioration of external conditions. In this regard, the agency awaits a lower growth index for both Brazil and China, two of the country’s largest commercial partners.
For the main partner of Mercosur it is projected a 2% expansion for the current yearhalf a percentage point less than in the January forecast, while Chinese growth was cut from 4.6% to 4%.
Within the framework of international tensions and the lowest activity, the IMF projects A 15.5% drop in the price of oila raw material that acquires growing importance in Argentine exports from the development of the unconventional cow site of Muerta.
The fund also predicts a Inflation deceleration. The average of the current year would be 35.9% and would drop to 14.5 next 14.5. As for the external front, a deterioration in the checking accountwhich would go from a 1% surplus of GDP in 2024 to a red of 0.4% in the current year and 0.3% in 2026. From the hand of the greatest activitythe unemployment would fall from 7.1% of the economically active population corresponding to 6.3% in the present and 6.0% in the next.
Deceleration
Commercial tensions and political uncertainty lead to The IMF cut to 2.8% its growth forecast for the world this year already 3% for the next one, compared to 3.3% that predicted in its previous projection last January. These figures are “Well below of the historical average (2000-19) of 3.7%.
The common denominator is that “Tariffs are a negative offer shock for the economy “he said Pierre-Loivier Gourinchaseconomist of the organism. The official criticized these measures because “They are reassigned (resources) towards the production of non -competitive goods, with a loss resulting from aggregate productivity, lower activity and higher costs and production prices”
It also considered that, in the medium term, by reducing competition, tariffs increase the market power of national producers and decrease incentives to innovate. Worse, he warned that negative effects “They are magnified in the presence of complex global supply chains”.
Taking these elements into account, The fund reviewed its projection of world trade in 1.5% this yearwith a slight recovery planned by 2026.
Now the IMF anticipates that advanced economies will grow 1.4% 2025. The United States has a strong cut of 0.9 points in their growth that would decelerate 1.8%. In the Eurozone the growth would be lower: 0.8%.
In developing economies, growth is expected to slow 3.7 % in 2025 and 3.9 % in 2026with important sales for the countries most affected by recent commercial measures, such as China.
It also estimates that World general inflation decreases at a slightly slower pace than expected in January, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with “Notable upward reviews for advanced economies and slight downward reviews for emerging markets and developing economies” in the current year.
Risks of the Donald Trump Tariff War
The fund warns that “The intensification of downward risks dominates perspectives. The intensification of a commercial war, along with even greater uncertainty in commercial policy, could further reduce short and long term growth” “. Also alerts that “it can occur financial instability, including damage to the international monetary system ”.
Source: Ambito
