After passing through the AOG Patagonia 2024,d the IAPGheld last week in Neuquenthe private consultant Daniel Dreizzen made a pointer with reflections and the challenges ahead of the oil and gas industry.
Below is the score published by Dreizzen, director of the Apelh Energy firm and Ecolatina expert.
1) After 13 years, this year the energy trade balance will be positive by US$4,000 million and next year by US$8,000 million. Oil exports increase and imports of liquids and LNG decrease: Energy is already helping the economy.
2) This occurs thanks to the increase in production of Dead Cow which filled idle evacuation capacity to Buenos Aires and Chile. And thanks to the construction of the GNK gas pipeline and reversal of the North gas pipeline financed by the state and of Oldelval’s Duplicar+ in privately financed oil.
3) Further to the future, in Aleph Energy’s Medium hydrocarbon development scenario, the balance reaches US$30,000 millionn 2030 thanks to greater oil exports. On the high stage almost US$60,000 million in 2035 thanks to also incorporating a large LNG project.
4) In oil the path is quite clear, reach ports and export. In gas it is more complicated because it is necessary to finance and build large transportation and liquefaction infrastructure, obtain markets, and its profitability is lower than that of oil.
5) The investments necessary during the next 8 years to achieve the high scenario, are US$208,000 million including Upstream and Midstream (this is US$26 billion per year, on average double what is invested now). Of these US$208,000 million, US$121,000 million are already “on track.”
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6) For these additional investments to come, more confidence and “normal and stable” financial operating conditions are also needed (remove the stocks among others).
7) A great effort will also be required from the entire value chain: drilling and fracturing equipment in Dead Cow they would double.
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8) The world is betting on LNG, it is no longer just “a bridge” towards the energy transition but “a highway” that will be there for decades. The model of exporting Shale Gas from the US to the world to be converted into electrons is underway.
9) Although renewables are growing in the world, due to the great growth in total energy demand, the Energy Transition is occurring in very slow motion. In 2023, the share of coal sources only decreased by 1%, from 82 to 81%.
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10) Although Argentina only emits 0.8% of global emissions, it could help the world by exporting Energy Transition: gas, renewables, lithium, hydrogen.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
