After a timid advance in August, economic activity showed another monthly decline in September and maintains the year-on-year decline. This is reflected in the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE).
He monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE) registered a fall of 3.3% in September, compared to 2023 and 0.3% compared to August, a figure worse than expected by the market, as reported this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). Mining and agriculture continue to drive activity, while construction and consumption do not rebound.
In chat with Scopethe economist Juan Manuel Telechea He said that “the main message is that economic activity has been showing mixed signals.” “The main point for me is that The sustained recovery of activity has not yet been consolidatedand that would be the weakest part of the Government’s economic program because without the recovery of activity it is difficult for income to recover and for the economy to improve,” he explained.
It should be noted that in relation to the same month of 2023, within the four sectors of economic activity that registered increases, the Exploitation of mines and quarries (+7.6% yoy) and Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry (+3.1% yoy). While there are eleven sectors of activity recorded falls in the year-on-year comparison.
Among those that stand out Fishing (-25.2% yoy) and Construction (-16.6% yoy). The latter, together with Wholesale, retail and repairs (-8.3% yoy) and Manufacturing industry (-6.2% yoy), subtracted 2.7 percentage points from the interannual variation of the EMAE.
From his account in X, the economist Fernando Marull of FMyAhighlighted that the data that activity fell 0.3% in September is “below expectations” but what he sees as positive is that “August improves a little +0.9 (versus +0.2% before).”
In turn, Martin Vauthier, Government advisor, analyzed: “With the September data, The monthly variation of the EMAE trend-cycle indicator was very close to returning to positive territory for the first time since June 22. In seasonally adjusted terms, September was 1% above December 2023 and 4% above the level of April 2024.”
Source: Ambito
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