“Although there is not much information and the president has taken great care that details are not known, seeking in some way that his appearance before the general Assembly generates a fact in itself, some assumptions can be made about what we can expect,” he told Ámbito.com Eduardo Bottinellidirector of the consultancy factum.
The review of the announcements made in March 2022, in its previous Accountability, as well as the recount of compliance with what was announced at that time is a possible starting point, realizing that a government that advances along the established path. In this sense, the announcement of the reduction of personal income tax and IASS is registered. Although Bottinelli stressed that “the great unknown is the extent of the scope of these measures and their real impact in the tax burden of the population”.
According to the director of Factum, in addition, the possibility of there being other types of announcements related to the tax burden, in the midst of announcements of new projects, investments or agreements, has been allowed to emerge, “as well as the promotion of some additional policy focused on , tracing the path for a new appearance in 2024, an election year”.
The first year with the post-pandemic behind and the elections ahead
For Augustin Iturraldeexecutive director of Development Studies Center (CED)“it is a different March 2 because it is the first time that it has had good news to give”, considering that “until now it was a government that had to tighten the strap, now it is going to loosen the strap a bit”.
“This year several things are mixed up for Lacalle Pou, it is the first March 2 as clearly post-pandemic and where you have to start talking about other issues”, pointed out the economist in his dialogue with Ámbito.com. The “big issue”, as all analysts agree, will be around the tax reduction, which has already raised criticism for issues such as income distribution, for being taxes paid by the middle and upper sectors, and for the fiscal consolidation.
“In addition to this that is going to be the center of attention, we have to see what else he says. I think he is going to step on the accelerator because this is the last clearly pre-electoral year, and for this reason it will also emphasize the three reforms that it has underway,” Iturralde said.
On one hand, the social security reform that is already being discussed in Parliament and that Lacalle Pou wants sanctioned in March: “we are going to see if he succeeds because there are noises in some coalition parties to vote for it, and it is the most concrete and powerful thing that the president has in place and need to score that goal nowin the first part of the year and, above all, far from the next elections”.
Also the education reform, more gradual and incremental, would be a theme during the Accountability speech; as well as the question of international integration, with negotiations with China and Turkey, the entrance to the Trans-Pacific Agreement (CPTPP)and the tensions with the Mercosur.
Educational reform is an issue that stood out Adriana RagaCEO of the consultancy FIGURE, pointing out that “Uruguay has one of the lowest rates of young people successfully completing secondary school, compared to other countries in the region, and this is a problem that has been going on for years and tends to get worse.” For this reason, it would be one of the strong points not only of the management of Lacalle Pou, but also of his speech in front of the General Assembly.
“Surely there will be a highlight prudent management of the economyat foreign investment that are being consolidated —especially linked to afforestation—, to the stable and guaranteeing business climate”, Raga also considered, while “there is less to highlight about security management, because after the pandemic violent crimes have increased again ”.
Source: Ambito
