“There is an effort in the first two years of fiscal consolidation, a decrease in public spending, an improvement in investment, an improvement in post-pandemic growth that allowed it to have today a highly consolidated investment grade, the best spread and the lowest country risk of the region,” he said in dialogue with scope.com. These aspects are “the basis for showing things.”
The improvement of employment —although not real wages—, the three pillars of educational reform, social security and international insertion, the improvement of deficits, as well as the investment in road infrastructure they will be the main points of the first part of the government of Lacalle Pou, according to Iturralde’s understanding.
“From a political point of view, the balance is also positive.especially the first two years where he managed to govern with a parliamentary majority of his own coalition, a coalition that many people bet was going to break, that it has not broken and continues to govern”, considered the director of the CED, taking into account, even, that 2022, politically, was the worst year since the scandal of the Astesiano case.
An image that went from more to less
“The end of the health emergency due to the pandemic had different challenges for the government,” he said. Eduardo Bottinellidirector of factum, to Ámbito.com; since “the concerns of the population emerged with greater force in other issues such as the economy, employment, and public safety.” And the perception of the management of Lacalle Pou, now traversed by a “normal” agenda, became more complex.
During the first years of government, the popularity of the president was exceptionally high: “people make a very good assessment of the pandemic based on some complex decisions that he made, which later proved to be successful: not compulsively closing the economy, measures that appeal to the responsibility of the people under the concept of ‘responsible freedom’the voluntary vaccination that achieved very good indicators very early”, as explained by Iturralde.
This left him very well positioned, with a very high approval rating for his management that he managed to capitalize on in political terms with the advance of the great reforms in 2022. However, this year also marked the beginning of the decline of that exceptionally positive image. .
For Bottinelli, “the pandemic, which was bad news for the government, also acted as check dam for malcontents, even as an explanatory mechanism of the conditions linked to job losses or economic results”. But once it passed, “you began to see more normal behavior in the development of the president’s approval.”
As could be observed in the last survey carried out by Consultants Optionthe approval of the government was 43% —figures that remain stable and relatively high—, but the judicial scandal surrounding its former head of security, Alexander Astesianoand the associated corruption affected the image of Lacalle Pou.
For Iturralde, this event “has made today have a more neutral judgmentwith a very even favorable balance that does not look bad in historical terms, considering that, generally, the third year in office is the worst for presidents”.
Likewise, “among his voters he continues to have the support of the vast majority,” he said. Adriana RagaCEO of FIGURE, “Although it is in a somewhat weaker position than that of tabare vazquez in his first term and that of Jose Mujica at the same level as their governments”.
“Although it is probable that among the electorate as a whole there are more negative judgments than positive ones, His image is not expected to ‘collapse’ in the remainder of his tenure. Historical information tends to suggest that the weakest moment for governments is precisely this, halfway through their administration, when the population feels that not all the promises have been fulfilled. In the last stretch, on the other hand, a reassessment usually appears, and public opinion tends to be more benevolent with the president who “is leaving,” Raga considered in dialogue with this medium.
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The expectations for a government that begins its last stage
Historically, the last year of governments is little margin to promote new initiatives, in a political scenario absorbed by the electoral climate. Therefore, 2023 will be the year for Lacalle Pou to carry out the great measures promised and announced during his government.
“The last two years of any president are complicated, because the perception of the leadership is that ‘there is no time’ for big changes. There is a tendency to manage what has been done, and eventually to spend more public money on things “that are seen”, and that ideally attract votes. The announcement of the reduction of the IRPF and the IASS could be considered in this framework, ”said Raga.
For Iturralde, the focus will be on the reforms —educational and social security— and in supporting the improvement of household income. According to the economist, Lacalle Pou will try to “generate a greater sense of well-being”. “We are in a country that has 40,000 more people working than at the end of the last government, but the average for actual salary it is two points below, so it is going to make a very big effort in these last two years to improve the income and, in particular, the real salary of the people”.
Bottinelli believes along the same lines, for whom “one of the ways that the government has had to remain strong and solid has been to advance in the great reforms, ‘a government in motion’ was one of the slogans used, while in recent times it has used a resource linked to the size of the investments”. Therefore, 2023 would be no different.
“On the one hand, the educational transformation that began to be implemented in March of this year and where the government has many cards in place to show results at the end of the year and the beginning of 2024. On the other hand, the social security reform, which is the search to show a responsible government that is not afraid to carry out reforms that are not popular, but also to show a responsible government with the future of the country”, considered the director of Factum.
Finally, “the perspective is that the government manages to advance during 2023 with great force in infrastructure inaugurations with the idea that in 2024 there will be political material to show the achievements of the government in this area”. And so, with a still uncertain future of the Multicolor Coalition and without defined candidates yet, to strengthen the possible scenario of continuity of this government.
Source: Ambito
