Will the dollar return to operate in the 40-peso range?

Will the dollar return to operate in the 40-peso range?

The price of dollar does not rebound in Uruguay and it seems to be moving further and further away from the expectations of the market and the productive sectors of recovering the upward path.

On Monday it closed at 38,692 pesos, according to the official price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), which represents a fall of 0.36% in relation to Friday. With this setback, the US currency recorded its third consecutive round of decline, and the interbank price continues to operate below the 39-peso range.

In the retail market, the price is also below that ceiling: it was offered at 37.55 pesos for purchase and 39.95 pesos for sale on the blackboard of the BROUwhile the preferential value of the dollar eBROU it was at 38.05 pesos for the purchase, and 39.45 pesos for the sale.

The dollar has not traded above 40 pesos since the end of last December. This band is considered the minimum floor desired by the market and a certain stability of the exchange rate in it would allow us to project that, as the months go by, an upward path will begin, which today is seen as difficult.

The last time the US currency came close to that exchange rate was on March 16, when it traded at 39.679 pesos. That day marked the maximum in two months, but the appreciation lasted only one day, so the downward trend and the oscillation between 38 and 39 pesos have marked the behavior of the dollar so far in 2023.

According to the projections of the last Economic Expectations Surveyhe BCU reported that market agents expect the dollar to close at 41.28 pesos on average for the current year, which would imply an increase of 6.69% for the end of the calendar year.

The depreciation of the dollar, which last year was 10.65%, is the main complaint of the industrial and agro-export sectors that denounce a loss of competitiveness. The rise of the exchange gap with Argentina It has added discomfort regarding the exchange rate and incorporated the commerce sector among those affected.

On the global scene, the dollar continues to weaken and analysts estimate that this process will deepen if the United States Federal Reserve pause its contractionary interest rate policy or if the country defaults in June, a risk that the Treasury secretary, Janet Yellenconsider real.

Source: Ambito

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