The dollar will reach $41 in December, analysts estimate

The dollar will reach $41 in December, analysts estimate

They also lowered the growth projection and increased the inflation projection, according to the survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).

Photo: Pexels / Karolina Grabowska

The analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reduced the dollar price projection at the end of the year, lowering it to 41 pesos as of December 2023 (the previous month they projected 41.3 pesos), according to the median of the responses to the Expectations Survey released today by the monetary authority.

If this projection is confirmed, the dollar would have a annual advance of 4.9%a lower rate than inflation itself and which would imply that the dollar would continue to decline in real terms this year in the Uruguay.

What are the inflation expectations among analysts?

According to the BCU data, the experts also raised their projection of inflation for this year to 7.5% The data is two tenths above last month’s survey.

Surely analysts are incorporating a certain resistance of inflation to continue the downward trend, particularly due to the circumstantial increase in fruit and vegetable prices in recent months. The new projection places inflation at levels very similar to the current ones; let us remember that the last data of annual inflation (April) remained at 7.6%.

Experts estimate GDP growth of 1.45% in 2023

On the other hand, analysts slightly reduced their growth forecast for this year. The median of the responses places the increase in GDP in 1.45% in 2023 (the previous month was 1.50%). The projection is below what is estimated by the government, who keeps his projection at 2%.

exist today high levels of uncertainty regarding the state of the economy, among other things due to the impact of the drought, that now -in addition to affecting agricultural production- has generated problems in the supply of water potable in the metropolitan area. The indicators for the start of the year show a mixed signal economy and without a clear tendency to grow.

Source: Ambito

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