The expectant market for a dollar that continues to close lower

The expectant market for a dollar that continues to close lower
August 28, 2023 – 09:50

Last Friday the dollar closed the week at 37,686 pesos, marking its second consecutive day down.

Photo: Pixabay

He dollar it fell 0.06% compared to Wednesday of last week and closed the week at 37,686 pesos this Friday, marking its second consecutive day down and far from the 38-peso range and contributing to a annual depreciation of 5.95% per year.

With this latest setback, which adds to a series of ups and downs, the US currency diluted the rise accumulated during August, which at the end of last week stood at 0.69%, despite initially threatening to be much higher. . Meanwhile, the depreciation is marked so far this year, reaching 5.95% per year, something that is accentuated year-on-year, with a decline that reaches 6.72% with a market that seems increasingly resigned to the currency drop.

Lowered projections and expectations that remain unfulfilled

In that sense, the last Economic Expectations Survey of the BCU evidences a correction of the market forecasts regarding the exchange rate for the end of the year: analysts expect the US currency to trade at 39.61 pesos for December of this year.

The problem is that, as much as the projections continue to be adjusted downward, the dollar it still can’t even get close to 38 pesos consistently. In short, the price has not been at the minimum expected values ​​for a long time, despite the increasingly moderate future scenarios.

Meanwhile, and according to the director of the Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres), Ignacio Munyo, the value of dollar functional for the government —in terms of inflationary control and compliance with the target range— does not exceed 38.5 pesos. Therefore, it would be difficult for the currency to return to the 39-peso range, and even more difficult for the expectations of market analysts to be met.

The dollar at $39, a distant memory

On May 3, the official price of the dollar closed at 39,074 pesos, after the third consecutive day of rise and the second to stay above the floor of 39 pesos, according to information from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). To find more than two consecutive days above those values, you have to go back to mid-March.

Since then, and far from the expectations that foresaw an improvement in the exchange rate equilibrium —above all, with inflationary control and the end of the restrictive monetary policy that the BCU had been carrying out—, the dollar he could not return to 39 pesos; in fact, the 38-peso range became the immediate price target after starting to move mostly at 37 pesos.

Since that May 3rd they passed 114 days —Some less if only exchange days are considered. Since the last time he was in the 40-peso range, it has been 240 days, eight months. And the dollar, far from recovering, it seems to be increasingly comfortable at low levels for the needs of the export sectors.

Source: Ambito

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