Market expectations for a rising dollar in September

Market expectations for a rising dollar in September

September 4, 2023 – 10:05

The US currency registered, last Friday, the highest monthly rise since February.

Photo: Pixabay

September begins with hopes since the dollar during August registered the highest monthly increase of the US currency since February, after two extremely worrying months for the exchange rate.

In real terms, August was a month of “ironed” dollar, with consecutive rises and falls that kept the price in the range of 37 pesos, without great risks of falling from that floor, but neither with expectations of a significant valuation. In this sense, the Daily average of the US currency was 37.85 pesos.

For its part, September opened with a dollar at 37,676 pesos, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), which meant a rise of 0.22%. Regarding the reference blackboard of the Republic Bank (BROU), he dollar it was offered at 36.45 pesos for purchase, and 38.95 pesos for sale. On the other hand, the preferential value of the eBROU dollar it was at 36.95 pesos for the purchase, and 38.45 pesos for the sale.

What happened during August?

The last trading day of August closed with a new drop in pricewhich seems to leave him more and more far from the 38 pesos range. In this sense, the delay is even greater if the moderate expectations maintained by the market players are contemplated, to which is added the value that the exporting sectors demand in terms of recovering some competitiveness.

The foreign currency registered a 0.1% drop compared to the previous month, the third consecutive in the monthly average value, and it is the lowest record since January 2020, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, from “end to end”, the dollar rose 0.44%, being the highest monthly increase since February. After two months in decline, the minimal increase is good news.

Meanwhile, of the 22 days in which there was exchange activity, in 12 the dollar fell, while 10 days had a positive closing for the US currency. Along the same lines, the largest daily increase was on August 3, when it increased by 1.05%; that day also registered the highest price in August, with a value of 38.26 pesos. In contrast, the steepest drop was the following day, on August 4, when it fell back a 0.53%; although the lowest price was given on August 1, with 37,496 pesos.

Source: Ambito

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