China will have a 2024 of declines in the demand for milk powderwhich compromises the Uruguayan exports since Beijing is the main buyer; one of the worst declines recorded since 2017 and very far from the peak demand of 2021.
He United States Department of Agriculture (UDSA, for its acronym in English) published its predictions and projects a drop in imports of whole milk powder during 2024. The report GAIN Dairy and Products Annual, presented by the UDSA last week, establishes that they will be the chinese imports lowest since seven years.
According to the report, the consumption It has been declining as consumers seek additional benefits for their health. However, they established that in 2024 the trend would continue due to an increase in the consumption of whole milk powder in the bakery sector.
As for the stocks of whole milk powder, It is expected to decrease this second half of the year, although it is estimated that they will be higher than those at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, the first half of this year was marked by an increase in production and with this, a jump in product stocks. .
Bad news for the dairy sector
He milk sector of Uruguay is going through a difficult moment that, it seems, could be complicated by lExports are falling at a general levelparticularly with China, whose prices do not rise even after a certain economic reactivation following the impact suffered by health policies around Covid-19.
This is also observed in terms of milk exports from Uruguay to the Asian country, which were 246,922 tons in August compared to 276,912 tons in the same month in 2022, as reported by Blasina y Asociados. Which represents a drop of 11% in terms of volume placed. Considering the value of the products, the drop was 20%.
By products, those with greater volume, such as powdered milk, fluids and whey, fell; while those of lesser relative importance showed increases.
Meanwhile, the federal government of Brazil decreed a tax measure seeking to try to stop the milk imports from Mercosur countriesbased on the modification of the tax benefits enjoyed by dairy importing establishments, originally created to encourage internal competitiveness.