He dollar in Uruguay faces a few days of uncertainty in the local market, compared to the behavior of the US currency globally, which, after sinking to almost two-month lows, had a significant recovery yesterday.
He dollar rose 0.27% at the close of trading yesterday compared to Friday, when it had a decline of 0.49% in the local market and fell sharply from the range of 40 pesos after spending only one day at those values . With this increase, it reached a price of 39,927 pesos, according to the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)and although it was not enough to return to the four tens, it was a good recovery.
Above all, considering that the global market was coming from a tough time after last week it recorded its worst weekly drop since July, after falling 1.4%. In that sense, the dollar index (US Dollar Index) fell 0.2% on Friday to 104.85 units, its lowest level since September 20, after the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) tone down his hard-line speech and US data showed signs of moderation – although with less positive results than expected in terms of employment.
In this international context it was that the dollar in Uruguay fell considerably on Friday, marking a negative start to November despite having reached the 40 peso range for the first time in the year and the significant recovery it had at the close of trading yesterday. In this way, the US currency accumulates a 0.12% decline so far this month—compared to a record October in valuation this year—; while in 2023 there is a drop of 0.36% compared to the end of 2022.
What can happen these days?
The truth is that, despite his poor performance last week, the global dollar seems to have picked up; at least, momentarily. So, yesterday dollar index rose 0.13% to 105.19 units, awaiting more signals from the Fed regarding what will happen with the monetary politics in the remainder of the year.
Regarding this, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell will speak on Wednesday and Thursday, and attention will focus on whether he maintains the more moderate tone he adopted after the central bank’s two-day meeting last week or whether, instead, internal divergences in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Comments from other Fed policymakers will also be evaluated for signs on whether they expect new rate increases.
Meanwhile, the next big driver of the markets is expected to be the consumer price inflation data corresponding to October that will be known next week.
In Uruguay, meanwhile, the dollar It will be greatly influenced by the movements that the currency has globally; Therefore, all local analysts also have their eyes on the decisions that the Fed may make—as well as their reception by investors.