What are the export forecasts for the Uruguayan dairy sector?

What are the export forecasts for the Uruguayan dairy sector?
November 7, 2023 – 12:44

Estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture show a heterogeneous scenario for the rest of the year and 2024.

Photo: Presidency

The demand in the latest projections of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) They estimate a drop in imports of Brazil of whole milk powder, while Algeria is expected to increase demand by 5%, which means good news for the Uruguay.

According to the USDA, Algeria will increase imports of whole milk powder by 5% – about 440 thousand tons – which would remain the same next year. The African country is the second main destination for dairy products Uruguay and one of the largest importers of milk powder in the world.

While, Brazil shows a drop in imports of whole milk powder, being one of the main products exported by the Uruguay to the neighboring country. Meanwhile, according to the report Dairy and Products Annual Elaborated in Brasilia, Brazilian imports will increase from 135,000 to 125,000 tons, while consumption will remain the same as this year.

According to sources consulted by the USDA in Brazil, producers are seeking internal stimuli to beat the current scenario caused by the latest resolutions that focus on the market, to which are added the changes in tariffs. For its part, milk production this year will increase by 4.3%, while next year it is expected to grow by 1.2%.

Bad forecasts with China

According to a USDA report, where it published its predictions for next year, it projects a drop in powdered milk imports entire during 2024. The report GAIN Dairy and Products Annual, presented by the UDSA last week, establishes that they will be the chinese imports lowest since seven years.

According to the report, the consumption It has been declining as consumers seek additional benefits for their health. However, they established that in 2024 the trend would continue due to an increase in the consumption of whole milk powder in the bakery sector.

As for the stocks of whole milk powder, It is expected to decrease this second half of the year, although it is estimated that they will be higher than those at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, the first half of this year was marked by an increase in production and with this, a jump in product stocks. .

Source: Ambito

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