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The momentum of the real and the global bullish trend, the keys for the dollar to return to $39

The momentum of the real and the global bullish trend, the keys for the dollar to return to $39

He dollar exceeded 39 pesos this Wednesday, something that had not happened for more than a month and a half, driven by the strengthening of the US currency globally and, particularly at the regional level, the appreciation of the Brazilian real.

With this good start to June, after two consecutive monthly increases, the greenback reached its maximum value since April 16 and reached again positive ground in the annual comparison, with an increase of 0.12% compared to the end of 2023.

However the dollar You still have a way to go to reach your goal. maximum quote in the year, which was January 9, the day on which it traded at 39,439 pesos. Furthermore, to reach the value of 40 pesos that the market expects by the end of the year, we must go back even further, until November 1, 2023, a value that was touched for the only time that year, when trading at 40,019 pesos.

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The global trend and the momentum of the real

When weighing the reasons that led to this rise in the currency, the supervisory economist in CPA Ferrere, Giuliano Cantisani, considered in dialogue with Ambit that he Uruguayan Peso “accompanied the global trend in the last month” and focused in particular on the emerging currencies.

“While the dollar remains strong against the currencies of advanced economies, emerging currencies have tended to depreciate against the US currency,” Cantisani analyzed.

For the economist, “the trend was led by the Brazilian real, which had a depreciation of more than 4% in the last 30 days” and recalled the impact of the neighboring country’s currency by pointing out that this currency “is usually a reference for the Uruguayan peso.”

This situation is felt more “when they perceive shocks that may have a regional impact,” he observed, when referring to the strong floods that generated serious consequences in the south of Brazil.

What can happen to the dollar in the second semester?

The economic agents consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) anticipated in the last survey of expectations, published on May 20, that the dollar will reach 39.55 pesos in October and will close the year at 40 pesos.

Regarding future prospects, Cantisani admitted: “We do not expect a great depreciation for the remainder of the year.” Thus, there may not be large jumps in the price, unless certain factors come together.

Among the fundamental aspects to determine the advance of the exchange rate there is an incipient one. “The decision made by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) Next week will be key for the evolution of the dollar”, highlighted the CPA specialist Ferrere.

In turn, he indicated as another relevant issue “future decisions made by the BCU at the local level,” focusing on the decisions of monetary politics. In that sense, the next meeting of the Copom It is scheduled for July 16, where the authorities must decide what happens to the reference rate.

Although last year the BCU led the rate cut At the regional level, it is expected that this year the movements will be smaller. Beyond the surprise reduction of 50 basis points in April, bringing it to the current 8.5%, the monetary authority anticipated that the rate will remain high in the short term.

Source: Ambito

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