The latest update from the Central Bank of Uruguay shows that specialists are in line with official estimates.
Financial analysts accumulate about 6 months with their inflation expectations for the end of the year aligned with those of the national government, after they went from a median of 6.30% in February to 5.98% in March, entering the target range established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) from 3% to 6%.
The data comes from the latest Inflation Expectations Survey prepared by the BCU for the month of August, where specialists predict an average inflation of 5.30% for the calendar year between January and December.
For the current month of August, analysts expect a median of 0.40% in the monthly variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and an accumulated 2.82% for the next semester (until January 2025).
As regards the next 12 months (until July 2025), analysts expect a median of 5.70%, and 5.80% by the end of 2025, remaining within the BCU’s target range. In turn, for the next 24 months (July 2026) the forecasts for year-on-year inflation decrease to 5.70% and the figure is repeated for the end of 2026.
In the middle of the month, the former president of the BCU, Diego Labathighlighted the achievements of his administration at the head of monetary policy in terms of inflation control – with the application of a target range and compliance for 14 consecutive months, and counting – despite the fact that, at first, it was pointed out as something “impossible.”
The dollar could close the year very close to 41 pesos
On the other hand, the most recent Economic Expectations Survey showed that the Uruguayan market believes that the dollar could close the year at 40.90 pesos, and would do so at 40.30 pesos in August. Today, the greenback rose 0.04% closing at 40.261 pesos in its bank quote, still below the median of responses from economic agents.
Likewise, the dollar is expected to climb to 41.03 pesos in January 2025 and to be around 42.00 pesos by mid-2025. The exchange rate for the end of next year would be around 42.70 pesos, rising to 43.90 in July 2026 and 44.70 in December of the same year.
Source: Ambito
