The Argentine authorities and the technicians of the International Monetary Fund are finalizing the details of the new assistance program, although they work with the certainty that The agreement is imminent. “He only lacks the bun,” said the president Javier Milei in journalistic statements, and I add that “It will include fresh funds.”
“What is missing is to finish defining the amount provided by the IMF and disbursement schedule ”, trusted to Scope a high official source. Both in Washington and Buenos Aires it agrees that “The dialogue is permanent and constructive.”
In the Casa Rosada they are convinced that the IMF is the one who needs to reach an understanding more than Argentina, because the success of the Argentine case justifies the validity of the policies it proposes. “It is the first time that a more severe program is applied than the one proposed by the Fund, which is fulfilled and that results”they argue in official sources.
The IMF historically opposes that the loans granted are used to sell “at low prices” currencies to contain pressures on the exchange rate. However, the government faces the opposite problem since, according to official sources, concern is to avoid an excess of weight appreciation.
Appreciation of weight
In this sense, the subject that worries To the authorities is the rapid appreciation of the weight. “Yeah (Santiago) Bausili (President of the Central Bank) would not have bought 800 sticks in the month the exchange rate would have dropped to 800 pesos, ” comment in the president’s environment.
And they say he added: “The majority of economists are donkeys and do not realize that the real problem we have is how to prevent weight from being much appreciated, because of the negative effect it would have on production.”.
The problem that the president is analyzing the most Javier Milei With the team of your Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, It is not the risk of a devaluation, but on the contrary, how to avoid excessive appreciation of weight, According to official sources.
For more than net reserves are in negative terrain (at $ 6,000 million, according to private calculations), government sources consider that the Central Bank has about US $ 10,000 million as a “wall” of containment for eventual pressures on the exchange rate, to which the fresh funds that result from the agreement with the IMF plus the foreign exchange income of the sale of the thick harvest will have to be added.
In this context, for the official team the problem is inverse to which those who warn of a possible run against weight, that is, How to prevent the dollar from falling excessively. In this regard, in the economic team they point out that “The pressure of the weight demand is tremendous.”
This is because the economy is growing and therefore demands more weights for transactions -the official forecast is that the internal gross product increases 5% in the year. And to this it is added that the treasure, with its surplus policy, absorbs resources every month -last year ended with a primary surplus equivalent to 1.8% of the PBI-.
According to the official vision, The takeoff of Argentine exports – not only of the field, but of mining, energy and knowledge industry, among others – will lead to a process of appreciation of the national currency. In this regard, they take as a historical reference the case of Yen that in the early 70s had a value of the order of 350 per dollar and currently around 150.
Source: Ambito
