The lightness with which President Javier Milei He promoted a financial asset of doubtful legitimacy not only calls into question his financial criteria and that of his team, but also threatens to generate a real impact on Argentine markets. The uncertainty surrounding this scandal could translate into greater risk aversion by investors, What would press the quotes of shares and bonds, raise the country risk and accentuate exchange volatility. For today and partially, the libertarian will be able to breathe, because there is no operation on Wall Street by federal holiday, but the reaction of the local square is expected.
And it is that the president promoted in his X account the cryptocurrency $ Libra, a private project that, according to him, was designed to boost the Argentine economy. Its publication was key for the Token to shoot to almost five dollars, but in a few hours it sank below a dollar. A classic “Pump and Dump”, where the value of an asset is inflated artificially and a few fill their pockets, while most lose their money.
It is natural that the question arises, did you erase the tweet? We will know when the operations start in the local square and the market judges the president. The truth is that analysts detected that around 80% of the tokens were concentrated in just five wallets, indicating that a few retired when the Token reached the cusp to take all profits while many exterior investors and followers of Milei They saw their investment fade.
Thus, the impact of this scandal on Argentine bonds and actions will depend on the narrative that takes more strength in the midst of this era of accelerated post -truth. The truth is that the issue transcended internationally, so it will be difficult to cover it with guilt to the opposition or with some scapegoat.
The possible scenarios for Milei
Ignacio Carballodirector of the Center for Alternative Finance at UCA and Payments and Commerce Market Intelligence, analyzes in statements that, there are three possible scenarios: o Milei promoted a scam to know, or acted with extreme imprudence when supporting a project without due evaluation.
“In both cases, its credibility in investments and financial analysis is seriously damaged, which affects market confidence, particularly on volatile assets,” warns the expert.
And he adds: “The other possibility is that he has consciously participated in a fraudulent scheme, which opens questions about who benefited and their links with power.”
On the other hand, when asked about how this fell from abroad, Sergio Rodríguez Glowinski, Chicago Bag Agent (USA), comments in dialogue with this media that: “The request for a political trial against Milei reflects the seriousness of the matter” and exposes the urgent need for exhaustive investigation to determine the degree of responsibility of the president in promoting this cryptocurrency.
And is that as well analyzes Matías EsusyEconomist of the Ingeco consultant, if it was possible to verify that Milei had personal interests in the $ Libra project and that he used his position to obtain economic benefits, “it would be imperative to face the corresponding legal consequences.
“The Public Ethics Law requires that officials declare any link with financial assets or private projects, and breach of these regulations could lead to criminal sanctions for computer fraud,” says Esusy.
The impact on actions and bonds
The independent financial advisor, Martina del Giudicepoint in talk with Scope That, the fact that the president of the Nation has promoted a potentially fraudulent “memecoin” generates “serious doubts about the diligence and criteria of his team.” This question the responsibility with which the investiture is handled in institutional terms, says the strategist.
From the Giudice slides that the resulting distrust could lead to investors, both local and international, to reconsider their positions in the country and to demand greater risk premiums for future investments and question is questioned: “Is it enough to erase a publication? We will know this Monday at 11 am. ”
So what can be expected for Argentine assets? Del Giudice argues that in the session that will begin in a few hours it can occur a strong sale of Argentine assets and is that Before the fear of a little prudent management, “investors could detach themselves from national assets, which would cause a drop in the prices of shares and bonds, and sharpen the recent profits.”
And he warns that the greatest perception of instability could raise the country risk, which would make Argentina’s access to international financing. And finally, it is possible that the capital exit exercise pressure on the exchange rate, and accelerates the depreciation of the local currency.
Glowinski coincides with Giuidice and points out that The promotion of a cryptocurrency of doubtful legitimacy by President Milei may have negative repercussions on several fronts. In the investor’s confidence: “The perception that Milei was involved in questionable activities, added to opposition actions, which will seek political trial, will generate uncertainty and distrust in the Argentine market.”
This in turn translates into greater volatility for local financial markets, as investors could choose to close their positions in Argentine assets by anticipating possible risks associated with the country’s economic and political stability.
And finally, the derivative expert points out that the international reputation will be vaulted by the lightness of Milei. “The scandal captured the attention of international media, which affects the image of Argentina in the global financial community and as well concludes Glowinski “A damaged reputation hinders the possibility of future investments and economic relations with other more stable countries,” all Argentina does not need to be found by the president.
Source: Ambito
