What can happen to the blue dollar after the reinforced stocks?

. – If the rate rises, the dollar appreciates. If this happens, it is likely that raw materials will fall, starting with oil, which has a significant influence on the agricultural raw materials on which we depend, such as soybeans and corn.

What happens to the soybean dollar?

. – It is not the success that was expected. If you sell soybeans today, they pay you $103,000 a ton. However, you can get a higher price if you trade in the futures market.

Can you explain it to me?

. – Of course, I sold the November soybean position at US$ 385 and, at the same time, the November future dollar at $480. With both values ​​you build a price in pesos for soybeans of $184,800, this is a rate of 79 .6% higher than that available and, if we annualize the rate, it gives us 157.0% per year.

But do you sell soybeans in November? I need the money today

. – Without rushing, you write a check from your account for $184,800 and discount it in the market, that leaves you something like $130,000 in hand.

Am I sold to November?

. – Correct, if soybeans and the dollar rise you will have to replace guarantees.

The soy I have?

. – You sell it in November, you do not deliver it until that date to close the operation without negative variations.

I don’t sell soybeans and I keep $130,000 in hand

. – Correct, almost 30% more than the available value. Those who know do not deliver soybeans in the available and take $103,000, give it a financial turnaround and take much more money.

What position will the government take with this operation?

. – You cannot prohibit futures contracts, what you should do is raise the agricultural dollar, or else end the complexity of the different dollar prices and lower withholdings from 33.0% to 20.0%, something that you do not do for ideological reasons.

Common sense is not common in this government

. – You should take this path, it would give you much more results.

Are there limitations to buy dollar MEP and CCL?

. – Those who have carried out a surety operation in the market, that is, those who left titles as guarantee and obtained a loan at 80.0% per year, will not be able to buy MEP or CCL dollars.

Can you explain it to me better?

. – They don’t want financing in the capital market to buy dollars, that’s why they prohibit it.

Anything else?

. – There is a rumor that they would not allow to take collateral with bills or American Treasury bonds.

What would that mean?

. – That those who have taken security with these instruments, should cancel the security or change the guarantee. If they change the guarantee, they would generate a buying current for local bonds, which would help them contain the price of alternative dollars.

In summary, the strategy is to iron the dollar MEP and CCL

. – At this juncture, it is the path adopted by the government, the Qatar or tourist dollar is at $458, while the MEP and CCL dollars are trading below that value.

Does the blue dollar benefit from these restrictions?

. – There will be a supremacy of the blue dollar over all the remaining prices, what happens is that the blue dollar has its own restriction, inherent to its spirit.

How would it be?

. – The blue dollar is bought in cash and the low denomination of the bills is a problem for your transaction. There are transactions, but they are not of relevant volume.

They are going to have to buy with cash trucks

. – They have to have the traceability of the money, that’s why you can’t use a cash truck to buy blue. It’s like going to peek and ring the bell.

everything is complicated

. – At any moment they will ask you for your blood group to buy dollars.

conclusions

. – Difficult week, tomorrow the collection for the month of April will be known, it is likely that we will see a decrease in the consumption VAT, that will indicate a drop in activity and difficulty in financing public spending.

. – According to Econometrics, the deficit of the Argentine State in 2020 was 11.4% of GDP, for the year 2023 they expect a deficit of 12.4% of GDP. We will have more deficit than during the pandemic, we are complicated.

. – This week we have the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the US employment data, be careful with the price of oil.

. – We may see declines in the shares, they are a little overvalued for our liking, perhaps in the second half of May we will have more attractive prices.

. – The MEP dollar could be calm, but the blue dollar will remain hot and will be the supreme among the existing dollar families in the market.

. – It is necessary to wait for what agreement the government reaches with the IMF, if it advances or not funds, if it achieves a change in the fiscal goals, and what expectation of reserves it has to achieve in the future.