After the data of August inflation, investors are beginning to outline their portfolios for the time remaining until the General Election. In this framework, the city’s bets are linked to a possible unfreezing of the official dollar in November and that is why two possible scenarios are already beginning to be observed.
According to a recent report by IEB Group, The first scenario is that of an orderly transition where the official exchange rate It has a correction after the elections of 15%, from here a crawling peg is carried out until the presidential replacement after which a discrete jump in the exchange rate of 60% is finally made. An indication that this could happen was given by Gabriel Rubinstein, secretary of Economic policy of the Ministry of Economy.
The second scenario is associated with a disruptive event that implies a devaluation of the official exchange rate advance that occurs after the general elections and that would be 50%. For both scenarios the projected inflation during the three months relevant for the purpose of this exercise (August, September and October) are the same.
Letters: the titles with the best performance expectations (scenario 1)
In scenario 1, the winner would be TDF24 which would be the asset that would best capture the devaluation of the official exchange rate that occurs in December, followed by TV24.
We can also observe that under this scenario the dollar CCL or Cash with Settlement It would provide considerable returns if we assume that the stocks are maintained and that the exchange gap remains important. With a gap of 60% or more, the CCL It would already be ranked as the third best asset in this simulation.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that among the assets with the shortest duration, Lecer November presents returns much higher than the rest, even among all the CER assets It is the one that offers the best returns.
Letters: which are the titles with the best performance expectations (scenario 2)
On the other hand, Grupo IEB affirms that if it is assumed that the exchange rate jump happens in October, the winning asset will be the letter Linked Dollar (D31O3) followed by him TDF24 that although it would present a lower performance in December compared to the first scenario, it would still be considerable.
With respect to CER assets The conclusions do not change because inflation for the relevant months for this exercise remains the same as in the first scenario.
Although high sources related to the BCRA seem to have denied the possibility of a rate increase, we prefer to avoid fixed rate instruments and place ourselves in short CER assets that will begin to accrue effective annual rates of around 306% with the latest inflation data, specifically they lean towards Lecer November (X23N3).
Regarding the instruments attached to the official dollar they opt for the TDF24 while we see the synthetic one as very attractive D.L. that is put together by buying the Rofex Future Dollar in October and the read November X23N3. This option is currently yielding approximately DL+10%. “We believe that there may be some room to make a rate in the short term and these are the instruments that we like the most for this purpose,” said the analysis.
Bonds: the city’s recommendation to rebuild the portfolio
With the financial dollars Showing a certain “stability”, the IEB Group report highlights the preference for allocating 63% of the portfolio to instruments in dollars and 37% to assets in pesos.
Meanwhile, since Facimex Securities They state that in fixed income in dollars, they maintain 60% exposure in sovereigns, 20% in provincials and 20% in corporates. “To channel the positioning, we see value in GD41 and GD35 among Globals (i.e. bonds issued under foreign jurisdiction) and in the AL30 between the bonars (local law)”.
Furthermore, when comparing with other countries, Facimex Valores highlights that, within the group of most stressed credits, Argentina is listed as one of the most stressed.
Meanwhile, the portfolio of Sovereign bonds in dollars designed by the analysts of Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) to face the month of September is made up of all bonds from foreign jurisdiction: 40% of Global 2038, 40% of GD35 and 20% of GD46.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
