In the midst of the debate in Congress of the omnibus lawalready without the tax chapter inside the super project, and before the expectations of an acceleration of crawling peg For this month, Investors are beginning to reconfigure their portfolios, and aim to find what Actions leaders will be those of greater potential in February. All this, taking into account that in January the local equity not only managed beat him to the inflation but, furthermore, to Dolar blue.
The keys to investing in the local stock market during February
Although the S&P Merval had a very good month in January measured in pesos (+35%)the truth is the local political and economic context will be very important in determining your performance in February. The market’s big doubt is whether the Government will finally be able to execute most of the points on its economic agenda. This uncertainty was revealed last week with the project of the omnibus law, when government decided to remove from it the tax package.
On the other hand, “the next few weeks will be crucial as the effect of seasonal demand for pesos and The Government must implement the adjustment, managing the political cost. It is not yet a stabilization program, which could take place later with a fiscal anchor and concrete measures in that sense, but rather a a roadmap to remove exchange controls and relative prices that accommodate from current distortions,” analyzed the SBS Group.
As to parallel dollarsthe good acceptance on the part of the importers of the BOPREAL would control the rise of the CCL, which would also have a positive impact on the blue dollar. However, the real exchange rate is already sufficiently appreciated so that the future dollar contract curve puts pressure on the current crawling peg, which is at 2%, and validate a new exchange rate acceleration.
Regarding traditional savings instruments, real rates in pesos remain very negative in a context where there is a huge loss of purchasing power, product of the acceleration of inflation (CPI in December stood at 25.5% monthly and an increase of 20% is expected in January) and the delay in the joint ventures, which forces us to look for investment alternatives that at least fight the generalized price increase.
Stocks: how to build a winning portfolio in February
He SBS Group In its latest report it revealed that “for the equitywe continue to maintain a bias towards oil & gas (Vista Energy, Pampa Energía, Transportadora de Gas del Sur, Transportadora de Gas del Norte, YPF, and Central Puerto), due to strategic relevance for the country” and explained that they see the sector “constructive in the medium term”.
However, they warned, there are “potential political turbulence in terms of both getting the agenda passed and managing the political cost of the adjustment, they could imply volatility in the short term“.
In turn, from the team PPI Research They confirmed that they continue to bet on the sector banking and energy. As for the first, “our favorite is BBVA Bank. This is due to a lag in its price compared to its peers, leaving BBAR valuation ratios cheaper.” “In the energy sector, we remain firm with Cedear Vista Energy”, AG
For its part, since Invest in the Stock Market (IEB)they decided to sustain the strategy of overweighting the regulated sector since they obtained “good results” with Central Puerto, Transportadora de Gas del Norte, Distribuidora de Gas Cuyana, Autopistas del Sol and Transener.
“We believe it is a sector that continues to have drivers genuine given that an honesty of the relative prices of the economy would be favorable for these companies that have suffered from tariff delays over the last few years,” they explained.
As for the banking sectorthey described that it is currently “volatile” since they are “very sensitive to the announcements that may be made from the governmentHowever, the current values at which they are trading are attractive to us if we have a horizon of medium-long term Banco BBVA and Banco Macro They are the ones we like the most in that sector,” they said from IEB.
Within financial services they recommended BYMAbecause they “continue to find it attractive in a context of inflation and/or devaluation”, and specifically, in the materials area, to Black Hill.
Lastly, since IOL invest online they look favorably on investing in Pampa Energy: “We understand that Pampa is a company that cannot fail to be included in a portfolio, due to its solid fundamentals, but also because part of its income comes directly in dollars from exportswhich places it as an alternative coverage against the exchange volatility”.
While, finally, they closed with Central Port: “We believe that The new administration must rearrange the relative prices of the economy and rates will undergo adjustments that will allow you to improve your income, which is impacted by operating costs that are not covered, while your income is. It is a company that generates a lot of cashand allows it to acquire strategic plants, which is why we see value in the event of an eventual adjustment.”
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