Country risk accelerates fall: it plummets 15% in just 4 days and hits the lows of 2022

Country risk accelerates fall: it plummets 15% in just 4 days and hits the lows of 2022

He Argentine country risk falls again with force this Tuesday, February 20 and now accumulates a 15% drop in just four days, to locate in minimums of almost two years. It occurs in the middle of a rally bullish trend in dollar bonds, encouraged by the announcement of a primary and financial surplus in January, which is celebrated by the market.

The index that measures JP Morgan lost 3.4% this Tuesday until 1,728 basis points and located at minimum values ​​since April 20, 2022when it closed at 1,701 points.

In this context, dollar bonds operate with average increases of 3% in the US, but with certain ups and downs in the local stock market.

At BYMA, advances are led by the Bonar 2041 (+0.4%), Bonar 2038 (+0.3%), and Bonar 2029 (+0.3%). On the contrary, Global 2029 (-1.3%) and Bonar 2035 (-0.3%) lead the falls.

For its part, BOPREAL fell 1.7% to US$68.34.

“After two months of the new monetary policy implemented by the new Government, it is interesting to wonder about the effects on the Central Bank’s balance sheet and the possibilities of lifting the stocks in the short term”estimated the consulting firm Delphos Investment.

He added that “the ‘liquefaction’ through persistently negative interest rates and the exchange rate appreciation as a result of the ‘crawling peg’ to 2% would remain firm during February. Questions about the sustainability of the appreciation will begin to grow as the second quarter and the liquidation of the thick harvest approach.”

Argentine retail prices in February will be “closer to 10% than 20%”, The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, stated this Monday during a television interview, far from the 20.6% that the country registered in January.

The Argentine economy currently registers highest inflation rate in the world after suffering a increase of 254.2% in the last 12 months.

The Government decided to issue a Treasury bill for 1,188.1 million dollars for six months, reported on Tuesday in the Official Gazette, within the framework of its monetary contraction program. The issue date will be February 23 and its amortization on August 21, with issuance, subscription and payment in US dollars.

Operational prudence focuses on the recent defeat of the Government in Congress, which rejected his ambitious omnibus law with which he sought to lay the foundations for a broad economic deregulation promised during the campaign.

President Javier Milei’s commitment to achieving zero deficit in the national accounts has eased dollar settlements in recent days.

“The market has given a first step of hope to the official financial scheme, but subject to it being able to weather the political and social storms”estimated VatNet Financial Research, and pointed out that “what remains constant in this situation is the lack of consistency. The situation is very changeable and the mood of the operators is even more so.”

Bonds in pesos: how much they operate at today, Tuesday, February 20

Bonds in pesos tied to the CER operate unevenly. Those who fall the most are PAP0 (-4.7%), the PR13 (-3.8%) and the PARP (-1.8%). And those that rise the most are DIP0 (+5.6%) and the TX28 (+3.7%) and the DICP (+2.4%).

Meanwhile, the dollar linked They are also mixed: the TV24 rises 0.4% and the T2V4 does not show variation.

Source: Ambito

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