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Two months of carry trade and hyperinflation in dollars

Two months of carry trade and hyperinflation in dollars

At the same time, we Argentines learned that we were traveling at a hyperinflation rate of 1% daily – with a fixed dollar minus 2% monthly -, according to Caputo-It represents an inflation of 3,678.34% annually in dollars. Although in reality the dollar fell, but the rate also dropped from 1% to 0.66% daily, unlocking a hyperinflation in dollars of 1,015.64%.

The logic of the financial cycle, at one point aggravates the periodic shortage of dollars in the Argentine economy, and for a few years, dollars have not been left over.

The lack of external financing is being more than compensated by the foreign currencies purchased (US$ 7 billion), since the day the game began, but, converted to pesos with the dollar fixed, or even with a dollar below, financed partly by small savers. That is, a transfer of savings from small savers to large players.

A WEAK PRESIDENT WHO ALTERNATIVELY INSULTS OR YELLS

Javier Milei called López Murphy a “traitor” and “trash,” and said that “Congress is a nest of rats.” Since before he was president, we know that he is accustomed to communicating in this way, whether due to learned patterns or a mere inability to control his emotions, it is something natural for the president. The most common thing is that with this behavior he seeks to condition everyone to meet his expectations. The symptom is called Coprolalia. It is a pathological tendency to utter obscenities, to circumscribe inappropriate words and phrases in the social sphere. Alternate this syndrome with another: Cacolalia, which is the obsessive and uncontrollable use of obscene language. He has a pathological tendency to utter obscenities, he did so in front of journalist Luis Novaresio, when he compared the State to a “pedophile in a kindergarten with children chained and wrapped in containers,” which the Children’s Council harshly questioned.

The government of Javier Milei aggravates its natural vulnerability, because it is born with minorities in the Senate less than 10% of the senators, 15% in Deputies, it has no governors or mayors and, nevertheless, it tries to conduct its greedy project. It is true that he has verbal and written support in the pamphlets sold by his colleagues who also “push him to show his body and face.” The establishment has been looking for someone with Milei’s profile for a long time. Milei applies the logic of a company, as well as the logic of a country. In a company, a personnel cut is the most common, because companies exist only if they make money. For example, if productivity drops, staff is cut and the company recovers it. A country does not have a profit and loss table, it is not a company (Krugman). Not even a state company has the logic of a private sector company, since its purposes can be diverse, strategic, political, etc. Many colleagues think that they are leaving him at the mercy of a social outbreak, less than 100 days into government..

The macroecolobists who watch from the audience would not be able to push even 20% of the reforms that Milei intends, and they excite him with the story of the neutron bomb that Alberto Fernández left him, they incite him by telling him that, in the medium term, he will be able break the structural economic and social decay, which they themselves built or helped to build. They encourage him these days even with the rains and the good harvest, they also suggest he surrender to the feet of Mauricio Macri, who is supposedly going to guarantee governability. What hope!

Recently Sturzenegger expressed that Macri was wrong, wanting to buy all the political, economic and social actors; being that, if Macri wanted to resume these practices, today “there would be no money”, because the technopols spent it and/or got rid of it: mainly Prat Gay, Caputo, Dujovne and Sturzenegger, among other filler macroeconomists (2015-2019).

BACKGROUND: THIS CAN END BAD AND FAST

It was in just 5 days of December 2001. Fernando De la Rúa, who took office on December 10, 1999, having won in the first round with 48.5% of the votes, had to leave office, just two years later, on the 20th. December 2001. That brief but accelerated government had an enormous impact on recent Argentine history. De la Rúa abandoned ship in the middle of an unprecedented crisis, which had an enormous social cost: geometric increase in poverty and unemployment, enormous income losses and transfers from the poorest to the richest. An experience that should not be repeated in our country.

In the dynamics of that collapse there is a dimension that must be considered, which is the role played by the community of economic experts. Economists have been the true architects and bearers of the dominant ideology during those years, and they returned recharged in December 2015 and 2023. In the community of experts there is a widespread, hegemonic and immovable consensus on the economic policies that Argentina must adopt. . If we do not understand what happened, if we do not seek to deepen our knowledge of the network of influential personalities and the dynamics of the crisis, history can repeat itself.

IN 5 DAYS: FROM THE EXPENSE CUT PROJECT TO THREE PRESIDENTS

December 17: The government sends the 2002 budget project to Congress, which includes a sharp spending cut of 19%.

December 18: Clashes between protesters and security forces.

December 19: A wave of looting occurs in businesses throughout the country, the government decrees a state of siege. Cavallo presents his resignation.

Cacerolazo: protesters in the City of Buenos Aires challenge the government’s emergency measure. The entire cabinet resigns. Thousands of protesters clash with police for the second day in a row. The death toll has risen since the protest began.

December 20: In the midst of strong protests, President De la Rúa invites the Peronist opposition to form a government of national unity. The Peronists reject the proposal. Fernando De la Rúa sends his resignation to Congress, ending with 39 deaths.

December 21: The provisional president of the Senate, the Peronist Ramón Puerta, temporarily assumes power. Congress appoints the governor of the province of San Luis, also a Peronist Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, as president for 60 days. In addition, general elections are called to elect a president on March 3, 2002.

Source: own elaboration based on BBC, 12-20-2001

The danger of technocratic dominance over politics.

Technocracy or “government by technicians,” defined by Putnam, is characterized by certain beliefs and convictions. Technocrats believe that technology and rational planning must replace the politics of negotiations, support and concessions. The Excel spreadsheet replaces common sense. Milei says “we don’t negotiate”.

Technocrats believe that they must define their own role, and be free of political and social commitments. They understand that “the progress” sought is achieved through depoliticization, “getting rid of caste.” They do not perceive themselves as “caste” and distrust the values, ideologies (non-libertarian-neoliberal) and logic of party politics. The State, in the technocratic mentality, is a mere implementer of public policies that must be placed “above” social interests, until the moment it disappears.

2001 showed the limits of technocratic politicians such as Domingo Cavallo, López Murphy and, their second sons: Federico Sturzenegger, Guillermo Mondino.

The absence of a political basis for economic policy decisions in 2001 further weakened a weak government, and led to its collapse; The solution to the crisis, later, did not come from technocracy but from the reconstitution of politics and its institutions.

“The best team of those last 50 years,” he returned with the bicycle, as Macri told Vargas Llosas, the same but faster.

The question is: why, in a context of socio-economic crisis, do they bring poverty from 41.5% to 57% in 2 months and does President Milei believe that more cruelty, not less, could constitute a way out?

That sinful faith in technocratic politics was part of an era, which the escalation of the 2001 crisis helped to close. After 14 years they returned at the hands of Riquelme’s enemy. After the resounding failure of Macri’s government, the same and new technocrats are back at it.

Director of Esperanza Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/ UBA Postgraduate Professor and Master’s Degrees at private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor in Political Science, author of 6 books, @pablotigani

Source: Ambito

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