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Key to the fixed term: BCRA analyzes what to do with the rate and the market makes its bets

Key to the fixed term: BCRA analyzes what to do with the rate and the market makes its bets

There are rumors in the City and in traders’ chats regarding a new rate cut, but this time, after the last mini exchange rate run, the move is not so clear.

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15 days ago Central Bank (BCRA) lowered the reference rate by 10 percentage points again, which remained at 40% annually. As established by the Communication “C” 97972 of the entity, that “is equivalent to a 49.15% annual effective rate (TEA)“already 3.3% monthly.

Thus, the monetary regulator maintained its decision to advance in another step of its peso liquefaction policy of the economy and in order to boost the placement of Treasury debt and aimed at constructing a short-term liquidity reference rate curve for debt instruments.

This Wednesday The national Treasury faces a new placement of debt in pesos and the doubt appeared again in the city as to whether it is likely that the BCRA will lower the rate again to make Treasury debt instruments more attractive, which had been operating at an effective rate of 3.4% for one month in the previous tender.

Market bets for rates

There are those who consider that it would be a serious mistake to advance in that direction given the small run that the previous drop in the rate unleashed in parallel dollars. “I don’t think it will happen, after the movement of financial dollars last week,” he says to Ambit he Eco Go economist Sebastián Menescaldi.

“I don’t think it would be a good decision. The monetary policy rate is the yield of the LECAP. The pass rate is already a nominal rate and it would be even more so. What is it for? If the Government makes that decision, they would have to explain why,” he says. the analyst Salvador Di Stefano.

For its part, the economist Gustavo Ber points out that it does not rule out a new BCRA rate reduction. “It is possible after the accelerated migration of passes towards Lecaps, which become the market reference rate,” says the analyst.

It happens that the market began to see in the Capitalizable Letters (Lecaps) issued by the Treasury, the new reference instrument for interest rates after the last reduction that the BCRA ordered for the repos and before the strong rise of the blue dollar, which occurred as a result of the fact that the pesos began to go towards that market due to the lack of investment options or refuge from inflation.

Source: Ambito

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