Joe Biden on the State of the Union – and his campaign start?

Actually, a cursory glance behind Joe Biden when he appears before Congress on Tuesday evening (9 p.m. local time; Wednesday 3 a.m. CET) and delivers his State of the Union address is enough to get an impression of the state of affairs: complicated.

There will be the new Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, who is determined to put the US President through his paces. Be it in the USA, through or in the affair of falsely stored secret documents from Biden’s time as Vice President, . To name just a few examples. In any case, governing will not be any easier for the President in the next two years.

That is the starting position of Joe Biden, who is now addressing a nation that is facing many challenges and, given the new majority structure in Congress, many disputes between the political camps. So what about the state of the nation? Biden is likely to address a number of topics in his speech, some of which are already wafting through the American newspaper forest.

A ‘soft launch’ for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign?

The last few weeks alone have given Biden plenty to talk about. After several deadly gun attacks, the President is likely to call for tightening of gun laws again, after which it is also expected that Biden could speak out in favor of police reform. Both are likely to face opposition from Republicans.

And then there was the sighting and launching of a suspected espionage balloon from China a few days ago. Has the President done enough to protect US airspace? Republicans like , not taking a firm and tough enough stance against system rivals. The President does not want to leave it that way, so his speechwriters are said to have hastily adapted the China passage, as reported. Accordingly, a clear announcement to Beijing is to be expected, but also an explanation for the wait and see launch of the surveillance balloon.

However, a statement by Biden on a renewed candidacy for the White House is apparently not to be expected. However, the speech could be a “soft launch” of his 2024 campaign, as it puts it. Biden had repeatedly indicated that he was ready to run again, and he had promised a decision in the spring. According to US media, this is now expected for March or April. The Republicans, especially his favorite opponent Donald Trump.

Biden now has at least the opportunity to outline his political plans for the next two years to a large public – and at best to prove that he, as possibly the oldest presidential candidate in US history, still has the necessary bite to contest an election campaign.

Even his Democrats have increasing doubts about this: Only 37 percent of the party members surveyed are in favor of Biden standing for election for a second term. Many think the 80-year-old is simply too old. After all: His .

“This speech is undoubtedly seen in the White House as part of the re-election effort,” believes Peter Wehner, who wrote speeches for former President George W. Bush. “And that means,” he agreed, “that this is the sort of speech that’s beginning to outline the broad contours of a re-election campaign.”

The man for compromises

In any case, it would not be the first time that a president – ​​whether Republican or Democrat – has used the annual speech as an opportunity to set out his agenda and (albeit indirectly) contrast it with the opposition.

Similarly, but differently, Biden could handle it. He plans to present himself as a conscientious president who is willing and able to make non-partisan compromises even in times of deep partisanship. It was reported by “citing an advisor who, while maintaining his anonymity, spoke roughly about the strategic direction of the speech.

Accordingly, the President will point out laws that he has introduced since taking office with the support of the Republicans – and appeal to the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives to follow them. Probably also in the knowledge that such cooperation seems increasingly unlikely: the extreme right wing of the Republicans leaves no doubt that they want to make life as difficult as possible for Biden.

This may be where Biden’s calculus lies, who could present himself as a mature yet calm adult in a kindergarten of belligerent and ever-excited Republicans. It’s a tightrope walk, says speechwriter Wehner: “You’re speaking in front of an audience that includes both the opposition party and your own, and you don’t want to appear petty or divisive as president,” he said.

During a press conference on Tuesday, the President said the economy and infrastructure will be discussed – which is hardly surprising given that the President can point to successes here. Inflation is falling, the job engine is booming, that can definitely be described as historic (and was passed non-partisanally). Biden is also likely to address the corona pandemic and support for Ukraine. Last but not least, according to his spokeswoman, the President also wanted to talk about “how optimistic he is about the future of this country”.

A much more critical picture of the situation is likely to be drawn in the opposition’s traditional counter-speech. The Republican speaker: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former spokeswoman for ex-President Trump (2017 to 2019) and now governor of the state of Arkansas. She wanted to highlight “President Biden’s failure”. “We are ready to begin a new chapter in American history,” Sanders said, “to be written by a new generation of leaders who are willing to defend our liberties against the radical left and our access to quality education, to expand jobs and opportunities for all.” The tone is set.

Although Biden’s mid-term balance is more positive than his bumpy start to office might have led one to expect, the president, like his predecessors, has by no means achieved everything he set out to do in the first half of his government – while the problem mountain is growing ().

Nonetheless, “He should be focusing his attention on major legislative achievements, the end of the national pandemic emergency, the stabilization and growth of the economy, and how well the midterm elections went for his party,” said Julien Zelizer, presidential historian at Princeton University, to “Politico”. “If this were any other president without the aging issues or concerns about what the Republican campaign might look like, this would be a message to launch in 2024.”

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