Parties: No experiments – Söder’s strategy for the fateful choice

Not even a pint of beer that a CSU delegate promises his neighbor for a no vote can do anything to the result: Markus Söder is unanimously chosen at a party conference in Nuremberg as the top candidate for the state elections in October. “Uh, yes,” says Söder. “I really, really, really want to thank you.” But the test is yet to come. “Now he alone is responsible,” says a CSU board member. “Him alone.”

Söder calculates that there are still 3,728 hours until the state polling stations close on October 8th. Up to Söder’s most important test so far, his fateful choice. As a reminder: So far, the CSU has not increased in any major elections under his leadership – on the contrary: in 2018, half a year after Söder took office as Prime Minister, the CSU fell to 37.2 percent and lost the absolute majority in the state parliament – which in the As a result, only Söder’s predecessor Horst Seehofer was assigned.

The CSU also slipped in the 2021 federal election, to 31.7 percent. This time the reading prevailed in the party that this was only due to the Union’s top candidate Armin Laschet. The CSU was only able to keep its result constant in the 2019 European elections – which was commonly explained by the fact that the CSU, Manfred Weber, provided the Europe-wide EPP top candidate.

Söder solely responsible

This time it is clear: Now Söder alone has to deliver. That probably explains why the 56-year-old takes the election so seriously and has been aligning everything accordingly for many months. Why he tries to get rid of all obstacles and potential dangers – right down to the wolf in the Bavarian Alps, which, according to a rushed and legally shaky regulation, can be shot easier for the time being. Why he tirelessly tours Bavaria after the Corona crisis, wants to improve the “microclimate” and floods Twitter and Co. with Söder photos from all parts of the country.

Actually, not only say his party friends, Söder doesn’t need to be so nervous. The CSU survey values ​​are currently between 40 and 42 percent, which is significantly better than five years ago. And because the Free Voters are also consistently around ten percent, nothing stands in the way of the continuation of the coalition with the Free Voters as things stand.

But actually, several delegates agree, the polls should have been better for a long time – if you look at Söder’s workload on the one hand and the increasing criticism of the traffic light in the federal government on the other. A CSU board member even suspects that only a quarter of the previous survey increase compared to 2018 is due to Söder. Critical voices even see a credibility problem with him, since Söder has only spoken in superlatives for years – this makes his changes of opinion particularly difficult to understand and vulnerable.

No place for free voters

It is striking that Söder does not leave a millimeter of space for the free voters within sight of the election. Actually, you are a team with the coalition partner of your choice. But when Free Voter boss Hubert Aiwanger tried to score points with the new wolf regulation and single-handedly announced a visit to the mountains, Söder went with him without further ado. Of course it was he who dominated the headlines, not Aiwanger. Mission accomplished.

It is also noticeable that Söder no longer has its own big accents. The multi-billion dollar high-tech agenda, even though highly praised by experts, is several years old and hardly suitable for an election campaign hit. And because of the Corona, Ukraine and energy crises, the financial leeway is narrower than before. It is questionable whether loud announcements of lawsuits – inheritance tax, state financial equalization and electoral law reform – will influence the election. And serious problems like the shortage of teachers cannot be solved easily. Incidentally, the CSU still has four committees of inquiry in the state parliament to deal with, and Söder is usually the focus personally.

Like in the old days

The incumbent is trying to mobilize his own supporters with a sharp anti-traffic light course. “Bayern deserves something better than a traffic light,” Söder calls into the hall. Above all, he has his sights set on gender (“sheep shit”), on supposed “re-education fantasies” and on the Greens. On the other hand, he presents the CSU as conservative as in the old days. “We want to keep Bavaria as it is,” says Söder.

As in the final spurt of the 2018 election, Söder presented himself as a keeper who spoke to the particularly conservative regular voters with the election campaign true to the motto “keep it up” and “no experiments”. This seems to be more important to the former CSU visionary than addressing new voters. Years ago it was still said that if you don’t keep up with the times, you should keep up with the times.

And what if the state election for Söder should actually be a success? Depending on the election result, sooner or later the K-question should come back to the tableau – even if Söder recently said quite clearly: “I’m not available there.” And what if something goes wrong in the end? We know from experience that if they guarantee success, the CSU stands by their leaders. If not, it can be over very quickly.