Brandenburg’s head of government can use his incumbency bonus in the state elections. Whether his party can benefit from this is not yet clear, as two new polls show.
A good week before the state election in Brandenburg, the AfD is ahead of the SPD in two new polls – but only just. In the ZDF Politbarometer Extra for the election on September 22, the AfD received 29 percent, ahead of the SPD with 26 percent. In the ARD Deutschlandtrend published on Thursday, the lead was smaller. There, the Social Democrats had caught up and were only just behind the AfD with 26 percent, just behind the AfD with 27 percent.
The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD regional association as a suspected case of right-wing extremism. A new state parliament will be elected in Brandenburg on September 22nd. For the representative ZDF survey, the research group Wahlen surveyed 1,060 eligible voters in Brandenburg from September 10th to 12th.
According to the ZDF survey, the CDU came in third place with 15 percent. It is currently a coalition partner with the SPD and the Greens in the state. The Sahra Wagenknecht coalition is just behind with 14 percent. The Greens, with 5 percent, have to worry about being re-elected to the state parliament. BVB/Free Voters and the Left Party each achieved 3 percent. 73 percent of those surveyed said that they had already made up their minds about voting. 27 percent are still unsure.
Woidke clearly beats competitors
When asked who Brandenburgers would like to see as prime minister, incumbent Dietmar Woidke of the SPD leaves the competition far behind. 55 percent would prefer him to other top candidates. 7 percent are in favor of Hans-Christoph Berndt of the AfD, 11 percent for Jan Redmann (CDU) and only 1 percent for Robert Crumbach (BSW).
According to 48 percent of respondents, the SPD should also lead the next state government, 21 percent favor the CDU, 15 percent the AfD, 8 percent the BSW. The SPD has governed Brandenburg since 1990 with changing partners, and since 2019 with the CDU and the Greens. Woidke has announced that he wants to leave the government if the SPD does not come out on top in the election.
Neck-and-neck race in ARD survey
The ARD survey by Infratest dimap sees the SPD just behind the AfD, with the Social Democrats up three percentage points compared to the previous week’s survey. The CDU has 16 points. The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance is at 13 percent. The Greens and BVB/Free Voters each achieved 4.5 percent, the Left Party achieved 4 percent. Due to a clause, it is possible to enter parliament with at least one direct mandate, even if the five percent hurdle is not reached.
If the head of government could be elected directly, one in two people would choose incumbent Woidke. 9 percent each are in favor of AfD top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt or CDU top candidate Jan Redmann.
AfD was ahead in Thuringia
In the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, the AfD received more than 30 percent of the vote. In Thuringia, the AfD became the strongest force. Forming a government there is proving difficult.
In general, election polls are always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
