National Council election: Difficult chancellor search in Austria – “Kickl has time”

After the FPÖ triumph in the parliamentary elections, Austria is facing a very difficult task of forming a government. In view of the emerging problems, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen urges patience. Finding political solutions and compromises could take time. “This is time well spent,” said the head of state in a TV speech, preparing citizens for what would likely be a months-long phase.

One of the central questions remains: What will happen to the election winner Herbert Kickl? Nobody wants to work with the head of the right-wing FPÖ. “He could become President of the National Council and hold the second most important office in the state. That would be an exit strategy for the FPÖ,” says political scientist Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle.

The right-wing populists are in a special position. They won the election with their record result of 28.8 percent. They hope for a coalition under her leadership, but they don’t necessarily have to go into government. “You can wait for the possible failure of the next government,” says Stainer-Hämmerle. Because whoever takes over government responsibility will not have an easy time given the economic downturn, the structural problems with pensions and the numerous reform backlogs. “Kickl has the least pressure of all and the FPÖ could continue its victim narrative in opposition,” said the political scientist.

Head of state investigates himself

In the near future, Van der Bellen wants to talk to all parties to find out who can work with whom for the good of the country. In the end, Stainer-Hämmerle is convinced that the conservative ÖVP will receive the order from Chancellor Karl Nehammer to form the government.

Because without the ÖVP, in power for more than three decades, it won’t work this time either. A possible partner is the social democratic SPÖ, which has fallen to a record low under its leader Andreas Babler. According to the provisional official final results, the ÖVP and SPÖ have a wafer-thin majority in parliament with a total of 183 seats, with a total of 93 mandates.

The next few weeks will have to show whether Babler, who has moved the SPÖ far to the left, can stay in office given the election fiasco. The day after the election, he still received, at least superficially, support within the party.

Stress test for the next state elections

The upcoming state elections in Vorarlberg and Styria will be a stress test for the ÖVP and SPÖ. In these more rural federal states, the FPÖ can once again hope for brilliant gains in October and November.

According to a voter flow analysis by the Foresight Institute on behalf of ORF, the FPÖ received 33 percent of the vote in the National Council election in the country. In Vorarlberg and Styria, Prime Ministers of the ÖVP govern, once with the Greens and once with the SPÖ. If the ÖVP loses power in both countries, that would also be a big problem for party leader Nehammer. “Then the pressure on him will grow,” said Stainer-Hämmerle.

Many observers assume that it will take until Christmas until a government is formed. A coalition of ÖVP, SPÖ and the liberal Neos is a conceivable scenario. “A three-way alliance against the FPÖ is not undemocratic, 70 percent of voters did not vote for the right-wing populists,” says the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung”. At the same time, this constellation has the problem that the German traffic light government is seen in Austria as the worst possible role model for a political trio.

Since, at least so far, Kickl has been rejected across all parties, his entry into the Chancellery could fail this time. But the medium-term prospects seem intact: “Kickl has time,” says the political scientist.