Does Trump’s peace plan seal Ukraine’s defeat?

US President Trump said during his election campaign that he would end the war within 24 hours. It is now becoming clear that this is not just rhetoric. Details of his peace plan are gradually leaking out. Although peace is too much to say, it is a plan to end hostilities as quickly as possible. This means a ceasefire based on what is factual and not what is right or desirable.

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources close to Trump, reports that the war should be frozen along the front line. In fact, the Russians would retain control over the conquered territories and Crimea. In order to prevent an eternal small war like the one in Donbass after 2014/15, a demilitarized zone should be set up. Along the front in Ukraine but also in the currently quiet zones on the border between Ukraine and the actual Russian territory. Peacekeepers from Europe are supposed to monitor this approximately 1,500 kilometer long zone. At the same time, the Russians are promised that Kiev will not join NATO for 20 years. Ukraine is being massively built up militarily.

As announced, Trump will then assign responsibility to the Europeans. “We can provide training and other support, but the weapon will come from Europe,” a member of Trump’s team told the WSJ. “We are not sending American men and women to keep the peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Let the Poles, Germans, British and French do it.”

The Telegraph puts it: “In return, the US would pump Ukraine full of weapons to deter Russia from resuming the war.” That would be a deal to Trump’s liking. The USA supplies the weapons and the Europeans foot the bill.

On the bright side, Donald Trump is showing how serious he is about ending the slaughter in Ukraine. That he does not want to continue a policy that gives free Ukraine no chance of victory, but prolongs the losing battle in order to make the Russians sour on their success. And Trump also shows realism. Kyiv has no way of achieving its own war goals. That would mean the liberation of all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, extensive reparation payments, transfer of the Russian leadership to international courts, etc. This would require a total defeat for Moscow. Ukraine repeatedly achieves spectacular successes, such as the use of drones against Russian ammunition depots. But these are individual actions that will not bring Kyiv any closer to victory.

The war against Ukraine is primarily a land war and Ukraine is losing it. The liberation effort near Kursk has long since turned into a rearguard action. In the east it was possible to stabilize the situation near Pokrovsk. A double-edged success, the Russians have shifted their focus to the South Donetsk Front. After the loss of several cities, the Ukrainian lines are now 70 kilometers from collapse. In the West, too, the Ukrainians’ war-weariness has now been recognized. Soldiers are leaving their units in large numbers. There are also ugly pictures of men kidnapped on the street. And the realization that the inadequately trained units of those forcibly conscripted cannot stop the Russian assault units.

The West’s hope was based on the fact that from 2026 onwards Putin will have increasingly greater problems replacing large equipment such as battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored transport vehicles. There are some arguments in favor of the assumptions, but there is no proof. But mistrust, since the beginning of the war, “experts” have been calculating which weapons Putin will soon run out of – none of this has happened. On the contrary, when it comes to crucial systems, the Russians can increase their output enormously. They were able to roughly quadruple the quantities of simple Iranian-designed drones and glide bombs within a year. The USA has by far the largest stockpile of military equipment of any kind, but even it cannot sustainably manage the war in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East without exposing itself.

It is easier for a new government to draw a radical conclusion. Which was always a reckoning with previous politics. The Biden/Harris administration must be blamed for never providing Kiev with enough support to achieve its strategic war goals. Bryan Lanza, a former Trump Campaign official, told the BBC bluntly: “The reality on the ground is that European nation states and President Biden have not given Ukraine the capability and the weapons to win this war from the start and are failing to do so to lift the restrictions that would have allowed Ukraine to win.”

The US President’s potential for pressure against President Zelensky is enormous. Without US help, the war cannot continue. The European NATO states could not compensate for the loss of the USA even if they wanted to. The question is, how should Putin be persuaded to accept such a plan? The Russian war goals include not only further territorial gains, but also the creation of a largely demilitarized buffer state. Postponing the conflict for 20 years is also not very attractive for Russia. Russia is currently better prepared for the war economy than the economically stronger West, but things could look different in 20 years. And: This war is Putin’s work and the victory should be his legacy. He will not postpone the conflict until the post-Putin period. So what is the fear scenario for the Kremlin that could persuade Putin to give in? It could be the threat of supplying Kiev with long-range weapons on a really large scale that can attack targets across Russia. Joe Biden has always shied away from this, Donald Trump perhaps not.

And finally: Are these indiscretions the real plan? Certainly not that the Trump camp has already distanced itself. But these are not coincidences. In military terms, Trump is in the “shaping phase” of his diplomatic offensive. These statements serve to prepare the ground for his plan. Prepare allies and opponents for possible scenarios and evaluate their reactions. And they are preparing the public. Until now, it was taboo to even say that Kiev’s defeat was entirely possible. This taboo has already been broken. And also that it may no longer be a question of Kiev being able to win, but rather that the time has come to limit the damage.