UN report: Childhood in transition: what 2050 could be like for adolescents

Technological breakthroughs, climate change, demographic changes: the world is changing – and with it the circumstances under which children grow up. The United Nations Children’s Fund, Unicef, is now investigating how minors could grow up in 2050. There are risks, but also some glimmers of hope.

In its report published on Wednesday, Unicef ​​predicts that child mortality will continue to fall by the middle of the century due to medical and technical progress and that the survival rate of newborns will then be 98 percent. And of those children who survive birth, 99.5 percent are expected to reach the age of five.

In the 2050s, 96 percent of all children should receive at least a primary school education – at the beginning of the century this number was still 80 percent. The calculation is based on the middle of the scientists’ three scenarios. This assumes that development will continue roughly as before.

Risks from climate change

Despite the assumed significant improvement in health and education, many children are likely to grow up under significantly more difficult climatic conditions than before. Eight times as many children as in 2000 could be exposed to extreme heatwaves, while river flooding and wildfires are also on the rise. Children without access to climate-resilient infrastructure, clean water or medical care are particularly at risk. “Children are already experiencing countless crises, from extreme heat to digital threats. The decisions made today will shape their future,” warned Unicef ​​Executive Director Catherine Russell.

In addition, according to Unicef, a larger proportion of children and young people (23 percent instead of eleven percent) are likely to grow up in low-income countries by 2050. This is mainly due to different birth rates: Demographically, tomorrow’s childhood will take place primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. According to the report, this is where the largest child populations are found.

While the proportion of children is falling in Western Europe and East Asia, in Africa it remains high at around 40 percent. The challenge: On the one hand, growing child populations must be cared for, while on the other hand, the needs of aging societies must be taken into account. Overall, according to Unicef, significantly more children will live in cities – around 60 percent compared to 44 percent in the 2000s. The number will be particularly high in Latin America and the Caribbean. In East and South Africa, on the other hand, fewer than every second child lives in urban areas.

Technology as an opportunity and a risk

Unicef ​​sees revolutionary technologies such as artificial intelligence as an opportunity for the development of children – at least for those who will have access to them. The risk here is the digital divide: Currently only 26 percent of people in low-income countries have internet access – the number is 95 percent in rich countries. Digital competence is seen as the key to good career prospects in an increasingly digitalized world.