Endgame Kursk – Ukrainian troops almost completely cut off

South of the Russian city of Kursk, Ukrainian troops hold Russian territory under their control. The Russians have been trying to drive them away from there since August – now a catastrophe is becoming ahead. The Russian armed forces almost completely cut off the Ukrainian front lead and formed a tactical boiler. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are in the trap. The most severe defeat has threatened since the case of Mariupol.

With a surprising offensive, the Ukrainians were able to overcome the weakly occupied border in August and penetrate relatively far towards the Kursk in a quick advance. The small town of Sudscha, a logistical hub and symbol of the offensive, fell into her hands as the first larger town. But after the initial shock, the Russians managed to contain the break -in. The Ukrainian troops were still able to easily expand their positions in tough fights, but large -scale maneuvers went towards the Kursk. Further attempts to significantly expand the front lead to the west or east and at the same time create smaller boilers on the border, either failed in the beginning or came to a standstill after minimal off -road wins. A last liberation in the north only led to some settlements to penetrate at times.

At the same time, the Russians pushed the Ukrainians back on all sides. Her main goal was to cut off the front lead on its base – a project that seems to have been largely successful. A few days ago, Russian units from the village of Kurliowka (east of the break -in) were able to break out and take a forest located west of it. Now they are just before the border. This deep advance was made possible by a new tactic: Ukrainian trenches and bunkers were attacked with severe sliding bombs before the infantry attack. These bombs, here the heavy FAB-3000, are thrown out of great heights and use simple navigation modules to precisely hit targets with high destruction. At the same time, the Russians moved east of Nikolaevo-Dar’ino on the opposite side of the front progress. The Russian tactics show a further development of its drone and bombing strategy: cable-controlled fiber optic drones have a range of up to 20 kilometers and are almost immune to Ukrainian interference, while the sliding bombs enable blows from a safe removal.

The only Ukrainian supply street (R200) ​​runs between the two Russian tops, just a few kilometers from the Russian positions. This road is not only the only paved connection, but also the only route that can wear heavy vehicles such as armored transporters – in spring defeat, the surrounding area also becomes almost impassable for terrain vehicles. The road has not yet been completely interrupted, but it is under long distances under Russian fire control and is dominated by its drones. Furnished vehicles line the route and Russian drones hunt every transport. According to reports, the Russians have concentrated hundreds of their best drone operators in the region. In addition, they disrupt the radio traffic of Ukrainian drones and use even large -scale cable -controlled fiber optic drones.

That alone would be threatening enough, but it gets worse. Sudscha is located at the center of the Ukrainian defense. There the Russians managed a surprising blow: Similar to the case of Avdiivka, they used gas pipes to bring troops deep behind the Ukrainian lines. They appeared north of Sudscha and are now blocking the remaining connection paths of the Ukrainians. It is currently unclear whether the Russians manage to connect to these units or whether the Ukrainians can recapture the positions. The pipeline consists of four tubes laid underground and leads to a compression station on the border. It remains uncertain whether the Russians have smuggled troops through the tubes in other places. However, the appearance of the Russian troops led to a shock. With enemies in the back, the Ukrainians were forced to give up their positions east of Sudscha.

At the base, the front lead is put on, Russian units have appeared in the center, and the Russians systematically destroy regular and temporary bridges of the Ukrainians to make movements within the boiler difficult. At the same time, they attack in five places. The Russians want to prevent the Ukrainian troops from withdrawing in their own area and strive for a “real” boiler in which as many Ukrainians are caught. Ukrainian lines collapse under the pressure of the attacks, especially in the north. The defenders probably withdraw towards the center of their area and the Ukrainian border. For the wrapped soldiers, the situation becomes a disaster not only militarily, but also humanitarian: without supplies there is a risk of food shortages and the collapse of medical care. Even if individual vehicles get through, most of them are destroyed on the way to Sudscha. A supply of so many soldiers is impossible in the long run, and wounded people cannot be evacuated. Injuries who could survive in a hospital die in cellars. First, the defenders have to stabilize their lines.

How could this disaster come about? It is a predictable catastrophe. The Russians have been pushing back the Ukrainians for months. It was foreseeable that they would block the street after the end of the frost period. At temperatures of up to 15 degrees, vehicles are now dependent on the road network. Even more than in other places, the Ukrainian leadership wanted to keep the area at all costs. Russian territory under Ukrainian control should serve as a means of pressure in upcoming negotiations to force territorial concessions in the east of Ukraine. Ukraine brought the initially successful offensive – at least in the West – a lot of positive reporting, which is why they wanted to delay the defeat for as long as possible. In the West, the offensive was initially celebrated as a sign of Ukrainian initiative, but the impending defeat could further impair the willingness to further arms or financial support. The abrupt stop of the US deliveries should hardly have led to a lack of ammunition on the front. However, the Ukrainian troops have significantly restricted the Starlink system.

In the past few months, Ukrainians have succeeded in making their troops out of such conversions. At Kursk, however, the conditions are more difficult. It is not about the remains of two battalions or the distance between two towns. Kyiv used a large part of his best troops in Kursk. Estimates over the exact number are difficult because the units no longer have their target strength. It could be 8,000 men, but also 15,000 – in any case a significant number, supplemented by the best available material from Ukraine. The boiler is also not overly large. The more the Russians squeeze the area, the closer the Ukrainians are put together in the remaining room. There they are constantly attacked by Russian drones. Even without drones, it would be impossible to quickly pull such a troop mass off a single street. Russian reinforcements are said to have arrived from the Belgorod area in order to finally close the boiler. At the same time, reports about Ukrainian reserves that are drawn together on the border may circulate for a last relief attack.

The only hope seems to be a fighting withdrawal to the border, combined with a simultaneous push of Ukrainian area to blow up the Russian ring. For this, however, the Ukrainian High Command would have to finally give up the occupied Russian territory. The prospects for an outbreak are uncertain. The Russians will expect such an attempt, and the entire war in Ukraine shows that troops that move and expose themselves suffer severe losses. Even if Kiev used his best and most loyal troops here, morality may have suffered greatly from these circumstances. The Russians hope for a surrender of the boiler or at least individual troops – so far they can only show small groups of prisoners.

If the Russians succeed in the Ukrainian troops to boil and capture, it would be an even greater defeat of Kiev than the case of Mariupol. Ukraine cannot currently replace the soldiers or the material. Such an outcome would have a massive impact on the willingness to continue the war within Ukraine and outside.