Euro 2024: France’s chances of winning the title are around 17 times higher than Austria’s

Euro 2024: France’s chances of winning the title are around 17 times higher than Austria’s

According to the calculations, France’s chances of winning the title are 19.2 percent, while Austria’s are a slim 1.1 percent. At least things are looking good for progress in the strong Austro group with the runner-up, the Netherlands and Poland. Shortly before major football events, statisticians such as Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck are already almost traditionally on the move to participate in the speculation about the outcome of the tournaments. In contrast to various amateur team managers, the team consisting of Andreas Groll and Jonas Sternemann from the Technical University (TU) of Dortmund, Gunther Schauberger from the TU Munich, Christophe Ley and Florian Felice from the University of Luxembourg and Lars Magnus Hvattum from the University of Molden (Norway) brings all kinds of data and machine learning – i.e. artificial intelligence (AI) systems – onto the field.

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Chance of reaching the final at 3.6 percent

Using an elaborate combination of scientific analysis methods and all kinds of information, such as individual player strengths or betting odds, the research team comes to a kind of overall forecast. Although football is always surprisingly difficult to predict, Zeileis and his colleagues have been quite close to the actual outcome on one or two occasions: for example, they correctly calculated the EURO final in Vienna in 2008 and mathematically predicted the winners at the time, Spain, to also become world and European champions in 2010 and 2012, according to a press release from the University of Innsbruck on Monday. The statisticians are using the current methodological combination for the third time.

“Our model predicts a probability of 53.4 percent for Austria to survive the preliminary round, which is not bad considering the group,” Zeileis is quoted as saying. If you look at the overall evaluation available on the researcher’s website, this figure for reaching the quarter-finals drops to 26 percent. The chances of a semi-final with Austrian participation are therefore 10.6 percent and those of the final on July 14 in Berlin then drop to 3.6 percent.

In total, the scientists simulated the entire tournament of the upcoming finals in Germany 100,000 times using their model assumptions. When looking at the chances of winning the title, the “most likely” European champions, France, are followed by England with a probability of winning of 16.7 percent, the hosts Germany with 13.7 percent, Spain (11.4 percent) and Portugal (10.8). Austria’s group opponents, the Netherlands, have the sixth-highest chance of winning the title (7.6 percent), followed by the defending champions Italy and Belgium with values ​​of around 5 percent.

Behind Croatia, Denmark and Austria’s last friendly opponent on Saturday – Switzerland – the team of team manager Ralf Rangnick lands in 12th place with a title probability of 1.1 percent. Incidentally, the model does not give European Championship newcomers Georgia and Albania any chance of winning the EURO title.

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