Dollar bonds erase initial rise and fall after touching historic highs

The dollar bonds They all closed in negative territory, with losses led by the Global 2049 (-1.8%), the Bonar 2041 (-1%), the Bonar 2035 (-0.8%) and the Global 2038 (-0.7%). In this context, the country risk measured by the JPMorgan went up 0.4% to the 1.370 basis points and again approached the symbolic value of 1,400 units.

“Argentine global bonds reached new highs during Monday’s session. However, the so-called ‘country risk’ is well above the 1,150 points observed at the end of April this year. This apparent contradiction is actually explained by the sharp drop in the yields of US sovereign bonds. The yield on the US 10-year note reached its maximum precisely in April of this year, when it touched almost the 4.75% annual zone. After these were compressed by more than 100 basis points, Argentine bonds will have to climb at least another 10% to bring the country risk indicator to a new recent low”they pointed out from Delphos Investment.

S&P Merval and ADRs

In the local market, the Buenos Aires stock market remained almost unchanged at 1,813,297.98 points. Measured in dollars, the leading index S&P Merval It did not change either, due to the drop in CCL dollarand closed at $1,460.81.

Meanwhile, Argentine papers listed on Wall Street fell by up to 2.4% led by Globantfollowed by Southern Gas Transporter (-23%), IRSA (-2%), Free market (-1.5%), Central Port and Bioceres (-1.4%). The most significant increases corresponded to Macro Bank (+3.6%), Black Hill (+2.1%) and Tenaris (+2%).

Markets take a breather: in what context?

The President Javier Milei On Sunday, the government presented the guidelines for the 2025 Budget, with the commitment to maintain its fiscal conduct without deficit, which is beneficial for assets. It also promised to return to record growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year.

In addition, the Secretary of the Treasury, Carlos Gubermansaid on Monday that the draft of the “law of laws” provides that the country issues new debt only to pay the capital maturities. “The payment of the debt, of the capital of the debt, will be repaid with new debt issues,” said the official in televised statements. In this way, the Government is betting on improving Argentina’s credit profile with the lowering of the country risk.

However, the market’s attention this Tuesday was focused on the international level, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which is expected to lower interest rates. Although this measure should encourage emerging markets such as Argentina, the local market is suffering from profit-taking.

“I think that domestic assets are taking a breather after the strong accumulated increases, a healthy and timely process in search of consolidating improvements. This happens even when Wall Street is firmer today after the reading of retail sales awaiting the decision and signals from the Fedamidst tugs of war over whether it will finally start with a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points,” he analyzed in dialogue with Scope the economist and market expert, Gustavo Ber.