Fausto Spotornoformer member of President Javier Milei’s Council of Advisors, shared his perspective on December inflation, anticipating that the index will remain at levels similar to those recorded in recent months. “December is a projection, since barely a week has passed. We estimate that the index will be between 2.5% and 3%. Meat has shown a significant increase in the first weeks, although this is common in December,” Spotorno commented during an interview on Radio La Red.
However, the economist downplayed this trend and maintained that he does not see inflation going “to get out of control” in 2025. “We see a fairly sustained downward trend. During these months of December and January it may be difficult to lower it, but it is because we are talking about two months with seasonally high inflation every year. So, we will have to look at it in detail to see the decline, but it seems to me that it is just a pause due to seasonality,” he explained.
What numbers are expected for December
Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) estimated that December inflation will be 2.9% and projected a general increase in prices of 118.8% by the end of 2024.
In contrast, the consulting firm EcoGo presented a less optimistic outlook, predicting an increase in 3.2% for this month. “The typical seasonality of festivals and summer vacations drives prices up, highlighting significant increases in meat (if they are excluded from the measurement, inflation would be 2.5%) and in sectors related to tourism. Increases are also observed in prepaid bills, cell phones, electricity rates, water, electricity and private schools,” the firm detailed.
Regarding the food and beverage category, the first days of December showed an increase in 1.1%driven mainly by the rise in the price of meat, which rose a 3.8% in just one week. Considering a projected increase in 0.5% For the remaining weeks—in line with the recent average—inflation in food consumed within the home would reach 3.5% in December. Adding the projected increases in food consumed outside the home (projected in 23%), the general indicator of the sector would close at 3.3%.
On the other hand, Claudio Capraruloeconomist at Analytica, stated: “Our projection for December is 2.6%in line with the values of October and November. However, our survey shows a notable acceleration in the price of meat during this month.”
From the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, a CPI of around 3% is estimated for December. “For January and February 2025, when the seasonal effect is ‘cleared’, we estimate the CPI could pierce 2.5%,” said economist Eugenio Marí.
Finally, Camilo Tiscorniadirector of C&T Economic Advisors, pointed out that inflation in December “may be a little more about 3%. The boost is due to the price of meat that has been rising since the end of November and that in December will actually rise a little more, it is an important issue. In addition, tourism has an influence, which is already beginning to have its typical summer peak.”
Source: Ambito
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