As time goes by, the key month for the markets approaches. The business horizon runs until August, at which time the doubts about the presidential candidacies will be cleared up. In that context, The National Treasury has been making every effort to extend the terms of its monthly placements of debt in pesos so that the maturities can already be entering the period of the next government.
In May, for example, it will have to renew another trillion pesos, an amount similar to that of April, a month in which it was able to refinance debt for 124% and end the quarter with a net of 126%, in line with what is needed to close this year’s financial program.
In the midst of a currency run and tensions with the markets, the Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, was able to obtain a net of more than $270,000 millionover $1.1 trillion in maturities, the highest amount since the middle of last year.
“It was possible to break the downward trend shown by rollover in the first quarter”said in a recent report the consultancy Ecolatina.
The novelty of April was that the average placement term was 8.3 months, which was able to break the barrier of the 3.5 to 4.5 months that had been recorded up to now. It was achieved with a dual bond that matures in February 2024. The cost to renew $1 trillion was to transfer 94% of what was placed to indexed instruments. In the previous quarter it was 50%. And higher rates had to be validated, 135% in the case of Discount Bills (Ledes).
In May, according to the Congressional Budget Office (OPC), the government will have to renew close to $1 trillion. The most important maturities are May 19 with a Lecer for almost $371,000 million and May 31 a Lede for $476,000 million. Bontes expire on the 23rd for about $140,000 million.
The question among investors, given the good results of the first quarter with the debt in pesos, leveraged by the help of state agencies, is whether the path is clear until the end of the year. “We estimate that the government The offer of sovereign debt instruments with a higher rate and indexation must continue to be attractive to achieve the necessary rolloverin parallel with a BCRA that will surely continue to intervene in the secondary market to sustain said strategy,” warned Ecolatina.
Setti will now have all this week to analyze the behavior of the market after the last These measures will show results to reassure financial dollars and mitigate investors’ predisposition to dollarize portfolios. In that sense, there will be a first call on May 18, and the second will be on the 30th.
Meanwhile, according to the OPC, in the remainder of the year the equivalent of u$s41,138 million remain to mature and US$34,118 million of them expire between July and September. US$15,959 million mature in July.
Source: Ambito
