For the economist Miguel Kiguel, the “second stage” of economic policy is now beginning of the Government and warned that it will be “more complex than the first.” Within the framework of the cycle of online seminars organized by PUENTE, the director of the consulting firm Econviews highlighted some virtues of the first months and highlighted five great challenges for the future.
“The challenges are to improve the quality and consolidate the fiscal adjustment, unify the exchange rate and lift the stocks, consolidate the decline in inflation, advance with structural reforms, and achieve a new program with the IMF”he detailed.
Fiscal balance
Regarding fiscal matters, Kiguel first showed his surprise at the magnitude of the adjustment that Javier Milei was able to make at the beginning of his mandate and the tolerance he received from the population.
In that sense, he does not see that the sustainability of the surplus or the fiscal balance is going to be a very important obstacle in the coming months. “I think that Argentina’s Achilles heel is not fiscal. It happens because Argentina needs more dollars. The situation is better, but we are still weak,” she said.
Stocks
The economist sees the exit from the stocks as one of the keys for the Central Bank (BCRA) to be able to accumulate more reserves in the future and thinks that This process can be carried out in the second semester “in stages”.
However, he expressed some concern regarding the delay in harvest clearance. “What we see is less volume operated in the market, and less liquidation of exports. Today the strength is the fiscal situation and the weakness is the low level of reserves”, he assured.
Inflation and structural reforms
Kiguel estimates that if inflation continues to fall, purchasing power will begin to improve, thus supporting consumption and credit. This would help entrepreneurs to invest more. It would reduce the level of uncertainty and end the turbulence that the markets are currently going through, which impacts economic activity.
Likewise, in the market they also maintain that the structural reforms, several of them included in the Base Laware essential to encourage investment.
IMF
Finally, the head of Econviews stressed the importance of “having a good agreement with the IMF that also brings money.” “Argentina would recover a large part of the lost ground in the financial part in these weeks. It seems to me that we must try to look for interesting structures to obtain financing. I see the private sector doing well. The silver can come from the private sector, which may have access to dollars before the public sector, and part of that silver can help rebuild reserves“, he elaborated.
Source: Ambito
