Alexander Sokolov, a leading researcher at the Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has developed a mathematical model that can be used to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in the capital. In particular, it reflects the relationship between vaccination and the likelihood of new outbreaks.
According to calculations, if herd immunity in Moscow is maintained through vaccination of about 20 thousand people a day (now, according to the portal gogov.ru, up to 25 thousand are vaccinated daily in the capital), then new outbreaks of the epidemic will be repeated every ten months. At the peak, the number of cases per day will reach 25 thousand people, it follows from the forecast. If 40 thousand people are vaccinated per day, the incidence spikes will become annual, and at the peak they will not exceed 3 thousand new infections per day, the calculations showed. Finally, if 50 thousand people are vaccinated a day, the epidemic will gradually stop, mathematical modeling has shown.
According to the creator of the model, the main factor determining the development of the epidemic is herd immunity. It can be influenced by vaccination. Measures such as lockdown or mask mode can only delay or stretch out the next peak in incidence in time, the developer believes.
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Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
