At the request of Izvestia, Alexander Sokolov, a leading researcher at the Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences and developer of a mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow, calculated how the number of cases in the city would change depending on what proportion of residents would wear medical masks.
If the indicator is 100%, by December 31, the number of new cases of coronavirus per day in the capital will drop to 220, and will soon fall to zero, calculations showed. However, it is possible to defeat the pandemic rather quickly if 90% of Muscovites wear masks, modeling showed. Then zero new infections can be reached by February 1, 2022. If 50% of Muscovites wear masks, then on December 31, 1,400 cases will be identified, the model predicted.
The calculations were made in accordance with official data on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the capital until mid-December: the number of new cases per day, the rate of vaccination, the number of daily tests, and so on. The model also includes such parameters as the regularity of contacts between citizens, the level of migration, and other significant factors. It is also taken into account that the Delta strain dominates in the city.
If the Omicron option prevails in Moscow, the model will probably suggest wearing masks for longer to nullify the pandemic. The exact timing will depend on the degree of infectiousness of the new strain and the effectiveness of vaccines against it, which are still unknown.
It can be assumed that the calculations presented are correct not only for the capital, but also for Russia as a whole. But it should be borne in mind that the epidemic in Moscow is ahead of the all-Russian trend by about two weeks. And the living conditions that determine the rate of spread of coronavirus infection may differ from region to region.
Caring mode: wearing masks 90 percent to defeat COVID in Moscow
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
