Amazon shocks the stock market with its warning that the online shopping boom will wane. But in this country, industry experts are expecting the above-average growth in e-commerce to continue.
Despite the latest warning signals from the US internet giant Amazon, German online retail does not anticipate an end to the strong growth in e-commerce for the time being.
Online trade will probably grow again in the third quarter by around 20 percent compared to the same period in the previous year, said the spokesman for the Federal Association of E-Commerce and Mail Order Germany (bevh), Frank Düssler, on Friday for the German press agency. For 2021, the association expects e-commerce sales in Germany of more than 100 billion euros.
The world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, had shocked the stock exchange with the announcement that after record sales in the Corona crisis, it expected the shopping boom on the Internet to subside – albeit at a high level. While revenues grew by 27 percent to $ 113 billion in the second quarter just ended, Amazon expects “only” a maximum of 16 percent for the current quarter.
The managing director of the Institute for Retail Research (IFH) in Cologne, Kai Hudetz, said: “It would be completely premature to speak of an end to the online boom. The growth of e-commerce this year and probably also in the next one or two years will be well above what we were used to before the Corona crisis. ”
Two developments secured growth potential for online retail. On the one hand, people have got used to e-commerce and continue to use it after the crisis. On the other hand, most of the stores have now adjusted to the new sales channel. “There is hardly a stationary retailer who does not try to be significantly more present on the Internet,” said Hudetz.
He referred to a survey by the IFH in which 33 percent of those questioned and even almost half of the 18 to 29 year olds stated that they would no longer want to shop as often as they did before Corona because they had got used to online shopping . According to the survey, established online retailers in particular continue to benefit from the relocation of their purchases to the Internet.
Retail expert Gerrit Heinemann from the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences is also convinced: “The e-commerce boom is not over. In the pandemic, many people would have learned about the advantages of e-commerce. “The online trade has opened up completely new customer groups here – also among older consumers. That is the basis for further growth in the next few years. ”
Especially in product groups in which online retail has not played a major role so far, from furniture retail to consumer goods, demand is growing particularly rapidly. “There is still gigantic room for growth here,” said Heinemann. On the other hand, the Sword of Damocles from a fourth wave of pandemics and renewed restrictions on business is still hovering over stationary retail.
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